Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18aa04d973fe167f2b70ca1f3ff5b17a2db23ae6ae96544f80472f0da30a4d88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $281,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $305,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $281,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 273 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 16c | 12,515$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 62c | 11,687$7,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,383.79 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 8c | 10,348$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.42 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf23e…6052backed Yes | 37c | 9,824$3,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,634.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked No | 75c | 5,000$3,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…e2c0backed Yes | 2c | 4,960$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.69 | 59 | 15.3%9 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 20c | 4,094$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.09 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed2e…41f7backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2103…4ff5backed Yes | 9c | 3,950$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.88 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x504d…dae8backed No | 79c | 3,297$2,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…bfbabacked Yes | 13c | 3,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 16c | 2,902$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.96 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ca…0ec2backed No | 41c | 2,900$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,703 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 75c | 2,633$1,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.07 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ac…bc7dbacked No | 78c | 2,393$1,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 39c | 2,381$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,459.87 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 8c | 2,275$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.51 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 2,194$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.84 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 2,186$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 2,111$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 9c | 2,100$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.02 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0eac…140abacked Yes | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 8c | 1,965$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.98 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 65c | 1,924$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.04 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf1…8277backed Yes | 9c | 1,799$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 1,654$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.53 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,646$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…6768backed Yes | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…5ba3backed Yes | 1c | 1,432$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 35c | 1,399$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.74 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 33c | 1,368$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.66 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…9989backed Yes | 1c | 1,341$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 1c | 1,336$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 4c | 1,300$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 64c | 1,178$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.94 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…cbbebacked Yes | 5c | 1,136$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed No | 57c | 1,105$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.27 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd609…40f4backed Yes | 19c | 1,057$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b1…bb91backed No | 47c | 1,008$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf803…0ddfbacked No | 74c | 999.34$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes | 20c | 990.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x277e…7d32backed Yes | 70c | 980.74$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.51 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 975.63$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.66 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 4c | 901.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e26…e4d1backed No | 38c | 828.76$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…2bf1backed No | 60c | 800.77$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.32 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…1c8cbacked Yes | 3c | 781.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3f07backed No | 74c | 761.46$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.86 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed No | 79c | 757.99$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.93 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 53c | 753.24$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.24 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…fbf4backed No | 76c | 699.99$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes | 4c | 672.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…2ed3backed No | 75c | 666.57$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.72 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde1c…fb66backed Yes | 27c | 655.81$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 71c | 632.06$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.31 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x989b…7521backed No | 62c | 629.44$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.92 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…d2a1backed Yes | 79c | 601.52$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.89 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…db7abacked Yes | 46c | 590$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.57 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 553.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.51 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a29…90efbacked Yes | 63c | 536.74$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…9897backed Yes | 9c | 522.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 5c | 514.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf635…82b4backed Yes | 39c | 509.72$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 504.4$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.91 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8714…4faabacked Yes | 3c | 504.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +10.6wins | +0.29per pick | 15cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…6a86backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…c27bbacked Yes | 40c | 499.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 38c | 499.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.99 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ef…ff3dbacked Yes | 22c | 499.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b47…af01backed Yes | 10c | 493.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 79c | 492.3$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.66 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0205…99e4backed Yes | 41c | 486.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacfe…7ce7backed Yes | 38c | 477.18$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.06 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…e410backed Yes | 32c | 473.79$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5d…014bbacked Yes | 50c | 471.21$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…a42dbacked Yes | 49c | 447.22$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.24 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6a…f26dbacked Yes | 51c | 415.13$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f7…4163backed Yes | 21c | 406$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +125.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…6b5fbacked Yes | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…abaabacked No | 52c | 400$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 39c | 400$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ae…e881backed No | 56c | 396.75$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 38c | 390$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.8 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x126b…0962backed Yes | 5c | 383.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c26…c399backed Yes | 47c | 374.11$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.02 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -79%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 371.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x665b…73babacked Yes | 27c | 368.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…8f96backed Yes | 37c | 354.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9301…3b67backed No | 38c | 350$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 15c | 348.83$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…720cbacked No | 58c | 335.38$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.34 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8b…aa7dbacked No | 65c | 333.02$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed No | 46c | 327.72$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.72 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +5.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2283…35c4backed Yes | 41c | 327.05$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.05 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5caa…953fbacked No | 80c | 323$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…de36backed Yes | 35c | 319.71$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 58c | 314.22$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 8c | 313.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a5…d54cbacked Yes | 33c | 312.05$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.14 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa548…1fd5backed Yes | 19c | 306.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of February?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.