Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd795477b55d0f2e1d1beaf3a5ba8d8dd6aeb07cbdb8e935737bf0a08feb34ef4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $393,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $372,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $393,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98f1…d2b5backed Yes | 20c | 12,050$2,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,444.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…dafbbacked Yes | 13c | 8,407$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.16 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -6.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes | 4c | 7,179$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.53 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 6,900$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.53 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 5,706$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.94 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 5,148$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0814…b977backed Yes | 5c | 4,512$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.24 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 5c | 4,217$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4b…beb5backed Yes | 21c | 4,005$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 6c | 3,850$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.87 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…7fa2backed Yes | 1c | 3,657$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…926dbacked No | 80c | 3,600$2,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ab…a94abacked Yes | 5c | 3,261$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 3,255$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3374…8e5ebacked No | 80c | 3,200$2,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea7f…9637backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc5…911abacked No | 79c | 2,700$2,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298b…066fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,655$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.77 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…9e82backed Yes | 4c | 2,630$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfa…0cf8backed No | 80c | 2,550$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf33…6258backed No | 79c | 2,450$1,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 2,315$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.13 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf80e…94e3backed Yes | 2c | 2,254$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd7…dff2backed Yes | 4c | 2,180$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.81 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 5c | 2,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 5cpaid | +267.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc228…b6c5backed Yes | 1c | 2,015$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cb…2c0bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…7de2backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4de…d74abacked Yes | 1c | 1,900$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…cb96backed Yes | 1c | 1,900$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 77c | 1,852$1,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.91 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b5…f657backed Yes | 1c | 1,850$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2410…64a8backed Yes | 1c | 1,850$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bc…9a30backed Yes | 1c | 1,850$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18e2…9469backed Yes | 19c | 1,837$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe23c…66b5backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6da…19bfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,800$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a5…1df4backed Yes | 1c | 1,750$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5335…0f54backed Yes | 1c | 1,700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…ae7dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fe…d183backed Yes | 1c | 1,650$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…305ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,650$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa751…aeb9backed Yes | 1c | 1,650$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b0…9ed6backed Yes | 1c | 1,650$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 1,618$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 79c | 1,586$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.06 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab59…9c0ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,550$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…15e8backed Yes | 1c | 1,550$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…4e40backed No | 79c | 1,550$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 5c | 1,506$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.67 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…c079backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…9ac0backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1812…268cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf478…0a44backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf3…7f89backed Yes | 34c | 1,472$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…8b78backed Yes | 1c | 1,450$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6221…40f3backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1e…3613backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdac8…5b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8976…c7fcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fa…a1abbacked Yes | 1c | 1,300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd53d…9355backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x048e…3808backed Yes | 23c | 1,222$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +149%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 3c | 1,161$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e1…3b95backed No | 70c | 1,002$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.86 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 19c | 999.99$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ee…54b4backed Yes | 5c | 926.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f1…9e5cbacked Yes | 4c | 876.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 867.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 823.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…bb69backed Yes | 20c | 822.87$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.54 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 2c | 750$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec0…976bbacked Yes | 1c | 735.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed Yes | 6c | 667.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -92%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x034e…f79dbacked Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d13…f5babacked Yes | 17c | 600$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…9652backed Yes | 19c | 580.19$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.01 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 4c | 579.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c5…4e09backed Yes | 6c | 555.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf54c…e6ccbacked Yes | 14c | 544.77$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed No | 66c | 519.83$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.74 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed Yes | 5c | 513$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 14c | 506.32$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -10.1wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -55%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…17e2backed Yes | 4c | 505.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x548b…04e8backed Yes | 5c | 500.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e3…5889backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Yes | 5c | 500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ba…5770backed Yes | 20c | 488.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 3c | 430.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc19f…2918backed Yes | 16c | 424.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 8c | 419.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 416$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…4835backed Yes | 5c | 384.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 378.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3196…3e8ebacked Yes | 16c | 369.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4566…f265backed Yes | 5c | 367.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c26…c399backed Yes | 5c | 360.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -79%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…6138backed Yes | 3c | 312.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…1f1cbacked No | 80c | 299.99$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a89…ff1dbacked Yes | 6c | 270.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -92.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of February?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.