Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x140018f9527fd6f61a84c76e1232c6261f17273f8d3ca8a6c7493b4048e9a179
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $288,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $325,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $288,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 9c | 17,616$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf7…06e6backed Yes | 1c | 8,777$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 2c | 8,703$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.11 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 7,125$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 6,453$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.58 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.67 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x703c…ae21backed Yes | 6c | 4,947$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b83…0961backed Yes | 1c | 4,700$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe374…c88cbacked Yes | 6c | 4,615$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 4c | 4,281$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.2 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc228…b6c5backed Yes | 2c | 4,191$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 3c | 3,774$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.61 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…dafbbacked Yes | 17c | 3,320$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.41 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -6.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5d…31b9backed Yes | 4c | 2,101$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fd…126bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,862$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 1,823$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 5c | 1,815$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.99 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c24…0791backed Yes | 7c | 1,793$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…06d2backed Yes | 1c | 1,750$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab59…9c0ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,700$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 4c | 1,694$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.57 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed No | 63c | 1,600$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.99 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc294…9869backed Yes | 28c | 1,390$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.56 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea7f…9637backed Yes | 1c | 1,384$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,362$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ba…5770backed Yes | 33c | 1,353$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.87 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e9…15bdbacked Yes | 16c | 1,257$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 1,099$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.51 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594c…9b29backed Yes | 7c | 1,073$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3281…922bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,050$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a3…285dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.94 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…92a5backed No | 69c | 930.65$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 66c | 911.32$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.86 | 37 | 81.1%30 W · 7 L | +9.0wins | +0.24per pick | 57cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…43c9backed Yes | 6c | 899.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 74c | 746.91$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.08 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b98…38f7backed No | 75c | 668.79$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes | 4c | 656.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 8c | 640.45$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8838…218bbacked Yes | 3c | 631.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d1…7d27backed Yes | 20c | 612.77$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed No | 72c | 600$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.2 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 3c | 600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 82 | 4.9%4 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…9e82backed Yes | 7c | 563.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb24b…f263backed Yes | 11c | 560.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd2…dda0backed Yes | 4c | 532.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad9…6b63backed Yes | 5c | 506.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Yes | 44c | 500$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x612e…8626backed Yes | 7c | 500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…3e98backed Yes | 18c | 500$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…ed67backed Yes | 6c | 470$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…9822backed Yes | 45c | 466.55$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 10c | 408.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd4…3abbbacked Yes | 35c | 395.98$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed No | 64c | 395$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked No | 74c | 372.42$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 10c | 366.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1f…b3e2backed Yes | 4c | 364.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 7c | 349.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c26…c399backed Yes | 8c | 343.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -79%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf06…4799backed Yes | 6c | 317.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ec26backed Yes | 4c | 302$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c0…de1cbacked No | 70c | 300.94$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…d2e4backed Yes | 7c | 294.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 61c | 293.11$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.65 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 288.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf85…d62ebacked Yes | 11c | 272.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 10c | 270.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed Yes | 6c | 266.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x548b…04e8backed Yes | 10c | 241.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 55c | 221.89$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.53 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3196…3e8ebacked Yes | 23c | 220.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x534a…6558backed Yes | 6c | 220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…c6efbacked Yes | 6c | 213.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4e…a562backed Yes | 25c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x208a…ab0fbacked Yes | 5c | 196.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked Yes | 18c | 186.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Yes | 45c | 185.46$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…d0bfbacked No | 73c | 185.16$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…043fbacked Yes | 14c | 178.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a89…ff1dbacked Yes | 10c | 173.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -92.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed Yes | 7c | 172.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…bb69backed Yes | 30c | 162.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…5460backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x380e…5f39backed No | 69c | 144.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed Yes | 11c | 131.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 110.95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed Yes | 10c | 103.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -92%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005f…2fccbacked No | 68c | 100.78$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…fabdbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…29dbbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc09c…682ebacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 95.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 23c | 92.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc10a…46b5backed No | 68c | 86.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff83…673fbacked No | 63c | 79.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 75.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6322…30c3backed Yes | 28c | 71.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked No | 74c | 67.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of February?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of February?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.