TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$288,323
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$325,175

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $288,323 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes9c17,616$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500150%0 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfdf7…06e6backed Yes1c8,777$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes2c8,703$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.115810.3%6 W · 52 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-56.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c7,125$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.252934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c6,453$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.582324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c5,000$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.67590%0 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x703c…ae21backed Yes6c4,947$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.630%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b83…0961backed Yes1c4,700$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe374…c88cbacked Yes6c4,615$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.8850%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes4c4,281$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.27812.8%10 W · 68 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-69.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc228…b6c5backed Yes2c4,191$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-77.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes3c3,774$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.615617.9%10 W · 46 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+36.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7c…dafbbacked Yes17c3,320$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.41240%0 W · 24 L-6.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x0d5d…31b9backed Yes4c2,101$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.361540%6 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4fd…126bbacked Yes7c1,862$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes4c1,823$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.12664.5%3 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-60.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes5c1,815$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9921015.7%33 W · 177 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c24…0791backed Yes7c1,793$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c2…06d2backed Yes1c1,750$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab59…9c0ebacked Yes3c1,700$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.921414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick8cpaid-29.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf82a…d221backed Yes4c1,694$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.571118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-73.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed No63c1,600$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.996651.5%34 W · 32 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc294…9869backed Yes28c1,390$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.5670%0 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xea7f…9637backed Yes1c1,384$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.31100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,362$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.561,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3ba…5770backed Yes33c1,353$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.871618.8%3 W · 13 L-4.2wins-0.26per pick45cpaid-52.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa0e9…15bdbacked Yes16c1,257$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.18825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes8c1,099$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5126413.3%35 W · 229 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x594c…9b29backed Yes7c1,073$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3281…922bbacked Yes1c1,050$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27a3…285dbacked Yes11c1,000$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1072114.3%3 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-77.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes11c1,000$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.944526.7%12 W · 33 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa485…92a5backed No69c930.65$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No66c911.32$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.863781.1%30 W · 7 L+9.0wins+0.24per pick57cpaid+62%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xc6be…43c9backed Yes6c899.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-48.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No74c746.91$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.087150.7%36 W · 35 L+7.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b98…38f7backed No75c668.79$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes4c656.54$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.431216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+86.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed Yes8c640.45$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.374134.1%14 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8838…218bbacked Yes3c631.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02d1…7d27backed Yes20c612.77$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120100%0 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed No72c600$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.22832.1%9 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed Yes3c600$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16824.9%4 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-68%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b34…9e82backed Yes7c563.98$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3760%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb24b…f263backed Yes11c560.48$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddd2…dda0backed Yes4c532.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdad9…6b63backed Yes5c506.48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.29333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-55.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc018…018abacked Yes44c500$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-79.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x612e…8626backed Yes7c500$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3650%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4cb…3e98backed Yes18c500$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-59.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff16…7511backed No80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002650%13 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd353…ed67backed Yes6c470$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe601…9822backed Yes45c466.55$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.82728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-58.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Yes10c408.28$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+61.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5bd4…3abbbacked Yes35c395.98$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed No64c395$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.733100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+79.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b24…11efbacked No74c372.42$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.42580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+33.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes10c366.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.213122.6%7 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb1f…b3e2backed Yes4c364.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes7c349.81$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.683312.1%4 W · 29 L-5.6wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-60.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3c26…c399backed Yes8c343.14$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.542213.6%3 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-79%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf06…4799backed Yes6c317.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2950…ec26backed Yes4c302$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c0…de1cbacked No70c300.94$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.792100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf56b…d2e4backed Yes7c294.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2090%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No61c293.11$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.6530238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes9c288.46$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5424126.1%63 W · 178 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf85…d62ebacked Yes11c272.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302817.9%5 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-62.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes10c270.9$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.859312.9%12 W · 81 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6735…f5b7backed Yes6c266.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.851040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+48.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x548b…04e8backed Yes10c241.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No55c221.89$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.5310739.3%42 W · 65 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3196…3e8ebacked Yes23c220.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502524%6 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x534a…6558backed Yes6c220$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick28cpaid-73.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x39f6…c6efbacked Yes6c213.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick19cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c4e…a562backed Yes25c200$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x208a…ab0fbacked Yes5c196.56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-58.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f01…548cbacked Yes18c186.85$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.26425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd104…7c02backed Yes45c185.46$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833831.6%12 W · 26 L-5.7wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-37.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbf98…d0bfbacked No73c185.16$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.324852.1%25 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1af3…043fbacked Yes14c178.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a89…ff1dbacked Yes10c173.91$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-92.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf876…8975backed Yes7c172.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d38…bb69backed Yes30c162.97$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1660%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1dc…5460backed No68c150$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482669.2%18 W · 8 L+4.7wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+34.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x380e…5f39backed No69c144.94$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.945100%5 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+67.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3fb…4a87backed Yes11c131.87$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.98812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No62c110.95$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.911,04834.5%362 W · 686 L-94.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc93e…7195backed Yes10c103.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.54195.3%1 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick20cpaid-92%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x005f…2fccbacked No68c100.78$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe7…fabdbacked Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x20a3…29dbbacked No66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.551776.5%13 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick57cpaid+46.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc09c…682ebacked No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.52050%10 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes28c95.8$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1630718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x169e…de26backed Yes23c92.16$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc10a…46b5backed No68c86.99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.01560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff83…673fbacked No63c79.84$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes32c75.7$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9235334%120 W · 233 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6322…30c3backed Yes28c71.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked No74c67.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.111283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick68cpaid+20.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.