Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04fcba309e6574a2a680af1d765b22bb9881700281d589599773a6c00e6c3d68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $747,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $861,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $747,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a85…6b68backed Yes | 2c | 50,000$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 2c | 35,260$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9958…36b9backed Yes | 2c | 28,000$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea7f…9637backed Yes | 1c | 9,002$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.07 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3281…922bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,591$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5987…4884backed Yes | 3c | 6,769$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 6,499$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x469c…309bbacked Yes | 2c | 5,208$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 4,923$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,700$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 2c | 4,582$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.37 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27a3…285dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…be23backed Yes | 2c | 4,183$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9e…3a2ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,167$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…053abacked Yes | 1c | 3,700$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc672…668ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,550$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b0…90fcbacked Yes | 1c | 3,050$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 2,851$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3985…2486backed Yes | 2c | 2,849$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…9e16backed Yes | 0c | 2,830$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac1…25b6backed Yes | 1c | 2,829$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…bd79backed Yes | 1c | 2,820$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3e…8497backed Yes | 1c | 2,812$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108e…d5d0backed Yes | 4c | 2,801$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5193…4091backed Yes | 1c | 2,690$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…43f7backed Yes | 1c | 2,650$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…d610backed Yes | 1c | 2,615$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4de…d74abacked Yes | 1c | 2,600$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x654f…1cdfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,535$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0353…539dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,514$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x141a…ff8fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc3…d183backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be4…d4c2backed Yes | 1c | 2,499$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…9e82backed Yes | 2c | 2,498$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…a10abacked Yes | 1c | 2,421$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…5ab0backed Yes | 1c | 2,412$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,401$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…5bfcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,394$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd62c…aac4backed Yes | 1c | 2,225$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 1c | 2,119$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x601a…c57ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd53d…9355backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb62d…d7c5backed Yes | 3c | 1,900$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 1,872$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…4183backed Yes | 1c | 1,850$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7df…590fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,850$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…9f0abacked Yes | 1c | 1,800$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x441f…4ed8backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa622…de41backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1e…3613backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4566…f265backed Yes | 4c | 1,759$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ac…71dbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,750$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2608…e966backed Yes | 1c | 1,750$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…9424backed Yes | 1c | 1,750$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2279…bec6backed Yes | 3c | 1,701$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3f…f448backed Yes | 1c | 1,650$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14fb…71e6backed Yes | 1c | 1,650$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf1…2181backed Yes | 1c | 1,650$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cb…2c0bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,650$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…de18backed Yes | 1c | 1,650$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…7de2backed Yes | 1c | 1,650$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d9…af6fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,650$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b44…5efbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,650$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…674cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,550$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…1997backed Yes | 1c | 1,550$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacdd…7f6fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,550$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805f…8986backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9945…f6a3backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7644…1f13backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9e…b4d6backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fd…4267backed Yes | 1c | 1,450$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f3…6d00backed Yes | 1c | 1,450$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…9ac0backed Yes | 1c | 1,450$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b23…30cabacked Yes | 1c | 1,450$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…7b01backed Yes | 4c | 1,445$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,307$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…cb96backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fa…a1abbacked Yes | 1c | 1,257$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x548b…04e8backed Yes | 2c | 1,003$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc1…8101backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474d…12edbacked Yes | 1c | 999.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd7…dff2backed Yes | 3c | 847.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8493…e006backed Yes | 2c | 830.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x720b…5cedbacked Yes | 2c | 806.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…7d71backed Yes | 3c | 700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 656.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6519…50e1backed Yes | 3c | 649.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 2c | 582.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e0…f9c0backed Yes | 2c | 527$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f3…bbbebacked Yes | 3c | 503.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 501.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 3c | 366.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed Yes | 9c | 349.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10aa…4831backed Yes | 13c | 250$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of February?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.