Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bd1851cfe883d474d125e12ce69eca3eecb700f4ce3f942880fe61047ec154d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $662,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $684,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $662,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 328 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 2c | 43,506$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.8 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…cbbcbacked Yes | 11c | 34,632$3,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,836.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed Yes | 2c | 23,555$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…cbbebacked Yes | 2c | 20,915$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e10…79c2backed Yes | 4c | 16,534$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 10c | 16,109$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560.17 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 4c | 15,400$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.67 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 10,397$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.62 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fee…0eb3backed Yes | 9c | 9,769$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c6…f793backed Yes | 3c | 7,251$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a4…eff2backed Yes | 13c | 5,173$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed Yes | 65c | 5,045$3,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,263.71 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,561$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.47 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x586f…b928backed Yes | 2c | 4,394$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 4c | 4,049$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.64 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 13c | 4,006$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.78 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 3,819$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.72 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 34c | 3,798$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,291.27 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x298b…066fbacked Yes | 12c | 3,427$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.21 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab59…9c0ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,347$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…9989backed Yes | 8c | 3,292$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.59 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc228…b6c5backed Yes | 3c | 3,189$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 2c | 3,173$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…fb86backed Yes | 15c | 3,037$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.46 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…17e2backed Yes | 17c | 2,840$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.77 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,820$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 2,669$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes | 6c | 2,632$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.69 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +261.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b1…bb91backed No | 71c | 2,628$1,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.15 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed No | 53c | 2,549$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,205.37 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 6c | 2,544$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.29 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc294…9869backed Yes | 23c | 2,450$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.87 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 15c | 2,399$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.6 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 28c | 2,388$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,730.93 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf803…0ddfbacked Yes | 14c | 2,251$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Yes | 19c | 2,159$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6594…9a61backed No | 34c | 2,110$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 59c | 2,094$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.54 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae5c…53ddbacked Yes | 18c | 2,092$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.56 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea7f…9637backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f748backed Yes | 6c | 1,995$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,914$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf765…5550backed Yes | 13c | 1,893$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc3…ec3cbacked Yes | 32c | 1,750$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe374…c88cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,629$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes | 15c | 1,625$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 58c | 1,615$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.76 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b36…def2backed Yes | 13c | 1,568$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ba…5770backed Yes | 39c | 1,556$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.28 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 68c | 1,532$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.83 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68f2…206ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,476$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…476dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,433$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ec26backed Yes | 12c | 1,394$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0247…64a1backed Yes | 11c | 1,380$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…84d7backed Yes | 57c | 1,375$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8c…18fdbacked Yes | 42c | 1,350$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6056…c27cbacked No | 70c | 1,350$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ea…1043backed No | 78c | 1,277$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…476abacked Yes | 13c | 1,236$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…d2e4backed Yes | 7c | 1,234$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bd…193abacked Yes | 16c | 1,227$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d44…966fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,200$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 46c | 1,194$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.97 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…ce2ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,181$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c3…4d61backed Yes | 15c | 1,123$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…b7e3backed No | 79c | 1,056$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.72 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…43c9backed Yes | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…f694backed Yes | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f5…d9d1backed No | 48c | 1,045$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc3…d183backed Yes | 9c | 1,040$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 1,037$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…6155backed Yes | 2c | 1,033$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b0…ceebbacked No | 70c | 1,015$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.82 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +9.3wins | +0.32per pick | 33cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdb34…a1cdbacked No | 40c | 1,014$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…446abacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf8…d0f4backed Yes | 21c | 999.98$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177d…0867backed Yes | 10c | 990$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd74f…95cdbacked Yes | 3c | 937.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…d8b1backed Yes | 11c | 919.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…305dbacked Yes | 2c | 895.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69d1…a152backed No | 80c | 875$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…c3ddbacked Yes | 2c | 841.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 3c | 813.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 53 | 0%0 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…fb48backed Yes | 3c | 789.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c39…f73abacked Yes | 38c | 783$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…2ea7backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe685…6633backed No | 79c | 743.95$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…07c2backed Yes | 14c | 730.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353c…682fbacked Yes | 12c | 728.12$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.41 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 54c | 722.82$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.42 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf3…7f89backed Yes | 14c | 719.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 714.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f26…e28dbacked Yes | 2c | 705.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 61c | 700.06$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.02 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 2c | 684.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 69 | 2.9%2 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…ebefbacked Yes | 23c | 653$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.19 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x634a…07b2backed Yes | 2c | 652.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed No | 80c | 649.79$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.96 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 22c | 636$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.08 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of February?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.