TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$662,175
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$684,355

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $662,175 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 328 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5950…8c48backed Yes2c43,506$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.81315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-78.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x328c…cbbcbacked Yes11c34,632$3,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,836.81118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-58.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d16…e798backed Yes2c23,555$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473140%0 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17f5…cbbebacked Yes2c20,915$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.5240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e10…79c2backed Yes4c16,534$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes10c16,109$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,560.177812.8%10 W · 68 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-69.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes4c15,400$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.6730238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c10,397$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.622324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fee…0eb3backed Yes9c9,769$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50c6…f793backed Yes3c7,251$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70a4…eff2backed Yes13c5,173$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.6630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1b2…a321backed Yes65c5,045$3,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,263.712227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.9wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-52.6%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked Yes4c4,561$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.47714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-66.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x586f…b928backed Yes2c4,394$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002544%11 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes4c4,049$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.641520%3 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+46.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed Yes13c4,006$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.782657.7%15 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes2c3,819$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.72664.5%3 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-60.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes34c3,798$1,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,291.274233.3%14 W · 28 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-11.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x298b…066fbacked Yes12c3,427$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.21185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-50.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab59…9c0ebacked Yes4c3,347$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.51414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick8cpaid-29.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95b3…9989backed Yes8c3,292$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.59684.4%3 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid+123.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc228…b6c5backed Yes3c3,189$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-77.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes2c3,173$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.325617.9%10 W · 46 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+36.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb29…fb86backed Yes15c3,037$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.46224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d06…17e2backed Yes17c2,840$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.771414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-64.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,820$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.371,0249.1%93 W · 931 L-25.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes2c2,669$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.982934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes6c2,632$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.693023.3%7 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+261.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5b1…bb91backed No71c2,628$1,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.154050%20 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff16…7511backed No53c2,549$1,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,205.372650%13 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes6c2,544$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.295810.3%6 W · 52 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-56.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc294…9869backed Yes23c2,450$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.8770%0 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes15c2,399$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.65018%9 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No28c2,388$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,730.933873.7%28 W · 10 L+6.5wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+51.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xf803…0ddfbacked Yes14c2,251$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.46540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-44.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8db…ccfbbacked Yes19c2,159$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6594…9a61backed No34c2,110$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,400.5944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick24cpaid+46.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb12e…8c6cbacked No59c2,094$1,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.543969.2%27 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+26.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae5c…53ddbacked Yes18c2,092$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.561216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-68.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xea7f…9637backed Yes2c2,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x919d…f748backed Yes6c1,995$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12210551.4%54 W · 51 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes2c1,914$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.750%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf765…5550backed Yes13c1,893$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbc3…ec3cbacked Yes32c1,750$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe374…c88cbacked Yes18c1,629$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30050%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes15c1,625$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2451233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+63.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No58c1,615$931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.767150.7%36 W · 35 L+7.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2b36…def2backed Yes13c1,568$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3ba…5770backed Yes39c1,556$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.281618.8%3 W · 13 L-4.2wins-0.26per pick45cpaid-52.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked No68c1,532$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.833748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68f2…206ebacked Yes3c1,476$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb623…476dbacked Yes2c1,433$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.65728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick15cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2950…ec26backed Yes12c1,394$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0247…64a1backed Yes11c1,380$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8de5…84d7backed Yes57c1,375$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.64425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-65.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf8c…18fdbacked Yes42c1,350$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6056…c27cbacked No70c1,350$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick58cpaid-60.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9ea…1043backed No78c1,277$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5579…476abacked Yes13c1,236$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.65714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick48cpaid-78.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf56b…d2e4backed Yes7c1,234$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8890%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3bd…193abacked Yes16c1,227$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick34cpaid-25%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d44…966fbacked Yes20c1,200$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No46c1,194$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.974158.5%24 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick60cpaid+7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ec0…ce2ebacked Yes3c1,181$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2c3…4d61backed Yes15c1,123$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.27850%4 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+65.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x65d4…b7e3backed No79c1,056$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.722378.3%18 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick74cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6be…43c9backed Yes19c1,053$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-48.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7676…f694backed Yes19c1,053$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0f5…d9d1backed No48c1,045$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bc3…d183backed Yes9c1,040$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes1c1,037$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.77752.7%2 W · 73 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0603…6155backed Yes2c1,033$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45b0…ceebbacked No70c1,015$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.822965.5%19 W · 10 L+9.3wins+0.32per pick33cpaid+90.1%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xdb34…a1cdbacked No40c1,014$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.51656.3%9 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfb4…446abacked Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2304526.7%12 W · 33 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdf8…d0f4backed Yes21c999.98$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x177d…0867backed Yes10c990$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-69.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd74f…95cdbacked Yes3c937.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f46…d8b1backed Yes11c919.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe3…305dbacked Yes2c895.39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.54214.3%6 W · 36 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69d1…a152backed No80c875$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1755100%5 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+42.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x26b1…c3ddbacked Yes2c841.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes3c813.06$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9530%0 W · 53 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3069…fb48backed Yes3c789.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c39…f73abacked Yes38c783$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.79650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+54.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2974…2ea7backed Yes13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe685…6633backed No79c743.95$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ee0…07c2backed Yes14c730.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x353c…682fbacked Yes12c728.12$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.411216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-69.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No54c722.82$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.424856.3%27 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-3.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bf3…7f89backed Yes14c719.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+84.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes9c714.92$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2624126.1%63 W · 178 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f26…e28dbacked Yes2c705.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.31315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked No61c700.06$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.023164.5%20 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes2c684.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.34692.9%2 W · 67 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3d6…ebefbacked Yes23c653$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.191428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+82.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x634a…07b2backed Yes2c652.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152634.6%9 W · 17 L-4.8wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-35.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5d5d…6be6backed No80c649.79$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.962669.2%18 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+30.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed No22c636$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.084528.9%13 W · 32 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+121.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.