TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$769,537
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$789,181

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $769,537 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 306 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2d04…f6b8backed Yes2c33,514$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.8950%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1585…8bbbbacked Yes11c15,237$1,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,692.461520%3 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a85…6b68backed Yes6c14,393$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.3340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaadc…4925backed Yes8c14,202$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c12,598$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.932934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c10,899$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.122324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdf7…06e6backed Yes2c10,005$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70a4…eff2backed Yes11c9,812$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.6630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes10c9,342$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.2296.9%2 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x328c…cbbcbacked Yes2c9,320$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.991118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-58.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cef…759ebacked Yes4c9,287$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.1750%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eac…3600backed Yes1c8,650$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.82020%4 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-48.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b92…45eebacked Yes16c8,646$1,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,415.1470%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff16…7511backed No77c6,254$4,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,455.562650%13 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1098…de18backed Yes1c5,450$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7c…dafbbacked Yes21c5,341$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,103.49240%0 W · 24 L-6.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x0f46…d8b1backed Yes3c4,355$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes2c4,349$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.983528.6%10 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+40.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes6c4,260$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.767812.8%10 W · 68 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-69.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6221…40f3backed Yes1c4,200$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1840…376fbacked Yes1c4,200$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7d8…0947backed Yes1c4,200$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd53d…9355backed Yes1c4,200$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22ab…a94abacked Yes11c4,185$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.54425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+55%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6be…43c9backed Yes10c4,166$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-48.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18b0…3d66backed Yes1c4,100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf456…bd30backed Yes1c4,100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fa4…cfcfbacked Yes1c4,100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5098…8e50backed Yes1c4,000$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x937a…f16dbacked Yes1c4,000$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6b0…9ed6backed Yes1c4,000$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7285…e263backed Yes1c3,970$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf800…b03cbacked Yes1c3,900$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bcc…1997backed Yes1c3,900$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37a2…a021backed Yes1c3,900$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e5d…9df8backed Yes1c3,900$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes3c3,863$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.575810.3%6 W · 52 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-56.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x586f…b928backed Yes2c3,836$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652544%11 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14fb…71e6backed Yes1c3,800$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89aa…7f4cbacked Yes1c3,800$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa85b…a554backed Yes1c3,800$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bab…d9b3backed Yes1c3,800$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea7f…9637backed Yes1c3,773$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.53100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4e…d609backed No55c3,610$1,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,618.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87be…5f2bbacked Yes10c3,469$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.17520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+53.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa996…99dabacked Yes10c3,300$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe625…91e5backed Yes7c3,207$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes2c3,022$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.41664.5%3 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-60.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes3c2,800$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94590%0 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes28c2,757$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.6630238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe374…c88cbacked Yes11c2,614$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30050%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes8c2,543$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.8421015.7%33 W · 177 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc294…9869backed Yes43c2,434$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.9970%0 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x298b…066fbacked Yes4c2,420$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-50.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb623…476dbacked Yes1c2,414$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.91728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick15cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7676…f694backed Yes14c2,208$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3201040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb00e…c8d8backed Yes2c2,197$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2c3…4d61backed Yes11c2,095$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.08850%4 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+65.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No60c2,049$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.427150.7%36 W · 35 L+7.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x16c9…65febacked Yes10c2,001$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33b6…be8ebacked Yes2c2,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25e1…6735backed Yes1c2,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe94…6fd3backed Yes1c2,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3794…e909backed Yes2c1,950$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x282f…7e5abacked Yes1c1,950$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd85…5e63backed Yes40c1,905$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe80b…7d5fbacked Yes1c1,900$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df4…cb08backed Yes2c1,900$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked No64c1,878$1,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.643164.5%20 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x819c…b762backed Yes1c1,800$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1812…268cbacked Yes2c1,800$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c2…06d2backed Yes1c1,750$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x983a…ca05backed Yes6c1,738$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.282638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40b1…bdd4backed Yes2c1,700$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bd6…708dbacked Yes1c1,700$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes58c1,653$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.264233.3%14 W · 28 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-11.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes2c1,615$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.891010%1 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-41.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4c2…2e57backed Yes1c1,600$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a79…cbf5backed Yes2c1,600$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…9652backed Yes13c1,600$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.991625%4 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-57.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x483e…3b4dbacked Yes1c1,558$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,548$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.211,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd274…f955backed Yes1c1,522$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc018…018abacked Yes64c1,500$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-79.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf43…7f30backed Yes1c1,500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c1e…3613backed Yes2c1,500$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0122…d4a9backed No54c1,500$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc42f…78a0backed Yes4c1,465$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.32744.4%12 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+41.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a64…8401backed Yes2c1,400$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc02b…ab56backed Yes1c1,400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc441…c469backed Yes1c1,350$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0371…70c3backed Yes2c1,302$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.690%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x25fb…c295backed Yes1c1,300$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7c0…a2b4backed Yes2c1,300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4de…c09cbacked Yes7c1,210$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e48…4525backed Yes2c1,198$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes16c1,150$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1842817.9%5 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-62.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf8c…18fdbacked Yes20c1,100$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1615…8f2bbacked No46c1,099$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.024447.7%21 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes1c1,074$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.19290%0 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.