Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58d51f537efeb82a4d6ab99d1a68f57c6b1ec21e74ea9df41e9a9d163d30dfba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $769,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $789,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $769,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 306 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d04…f6b8backed Yes | 2c | 33,514$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…8bbbbacked Yes | 11c | 15,237$1,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,692.46 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…6b68backed Yes | 6c | 14,393$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…4925backed Yes | 8c | 14,202$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 12,598$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.93 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 10,899$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.12 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf7…06e6backed Yes | 2c | 10,005$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a4…eff2backed Yes | 11c | 9,812$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes | 10c | 9,342$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.2 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…cbbcbacked Yes | 2c | 9,320$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…759ebacked Yes | 4c | 9,287$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed Yes | 1c | 8,650$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b92…45eebacked Yes | 16c | 8,646$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed No | 77c | 6,254$4,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455.56 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…de18backed Yes | 1c | 5,450$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…dafbbacked Yes | 21c | 5,341$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.49 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -6.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…d8b1backed Yes | 3c | 4,355$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 2c | 4,349$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 6c | 4,260$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.76 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6221…40f3backed Yes | 1c | 4,200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1840…376fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…0947backed Yes | 1c | 4,200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd53d…9355backed Yes | 1c | 4,200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22ab…a94abacked Yes | 11c | 4,185$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…43c9backed Yes | 10c | 4,166$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…3d66backed Yes | 1c | 4,100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…bd30backed Yes | 1c | 4,100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa4…cfcfbacked Yes | 1c | 4,100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5098…8e50backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x937a…f16dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b0…9ed6backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7285…e263backed Yes | 1c | 3,970$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…b03cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,900$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…1997backed Yes | 1c | 3,900$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…a021backed Yes | 1c | 3,900$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5d…9df8backed Yes | 1c | 3,900$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 3c | 3,863$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.57 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x586f…b928backed Yes | 2c | 3,836$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14fb…71e6backed Yes | 1c | 3,800$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89aa…7f4cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,800$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…a554backed Yes | 1c | 3,800$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bab…d9b3backed Yes | 1c | 3,800$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea7f…9637backed Yes | 1c | 3,773$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…d609backed No | 55c | 3,610$1,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,618.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87be…5f2bbacked Yes | 10c | 3,469$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa996…99dabacked Yes | 10c | 3,300$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe625…91e5backed Yes | 7c | 3,207$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 3,022$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 2,800$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 28c | 2,757$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.66 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe374…c88cbacked Yes | 11c | 2,614$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 8c | 2,543$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.84 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc294…9869backed Yes | 43c | 2,434$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x298b…066fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,420$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…476dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,414$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…f694backed Yes | 14c | 2,208$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb00e…c8d8backed Yes | 2c | 2,197$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c3…4d61backed Yes | 11c | 2,095$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 60c | 2,049$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.42 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…65febacked Yes | 10c | 2,001$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b6…be8ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e1…6735backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe94…6fd3backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3794…e909backed Yes | 2c | 1,950$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…7e5abacked Yes | 1c | 1,950$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…5e63backed Yes | 40c | 1,905$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe80b…7d5fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,900$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df4…cb08backed Yes | 2c | 1,900$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 64c | 1,878$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.64 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x819c…b762backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1812…268cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,800$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…06d2backed Yes | 1c | 1,750$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed Yes | 6c | 1,738$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.28 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…bdd4backed Yes | 2c | 1,700$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd6…708dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,700$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 58c | 1,653$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.26 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 2c | 1,615$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c2…2e57backed Yes | 1c | 1,600$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a79…cbf5backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…9652backed Yes | 13c | 1,600$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.99 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x483e…3b4dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,558$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,548$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd274…f955backed Yes | 1c | 1,522$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Yes | 64c | 1,500$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…7f30backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1e…3613backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0122…d4a9backed No | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 4c | 1,465$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a64…8401backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc02b…ab56backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc441…c469backed Yes | 1c | 1,350$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0371…70c3backed Yes | 2c | 1,302$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25fb…c295backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c0…a2b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4de…c09cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,210$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e48…4525backed Yes | 2c | 1,198$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes | 16c | 1,150$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8c…18fdbacked Yes | 20c | 1,100$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1615…8f2bbacked No | 46c | 1,099$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.02 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,074$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of February?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.