Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed6e40eeab474a579cb894e3eeafb215b29dbba27c30c33e39e80f40649d3cff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,263,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,570,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,263,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc228…b6c5backed Yes | 0c | 156,591$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 49,994$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd7…dff2backed Yes | 1c | 49,307$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.92 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…4925backed Yes | 2c | 44,671$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea7f…9637backed Yes | 0c | 24,999$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc13a…0f5cbacked Yes | 1c | 22,882$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 17,998$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 0c | 12,540$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc79b…406bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a3…285dbacked Yes | 1c | 10,818$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d54…e1f8backed Yes | 1c | 10,396$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…4f62backed Yes | 0c | 9,217$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0305…47c9backed Yes | 0c | 9,033$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95e0…c9dabacked Yes | 1c | 7,824$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c2…89abbacked Yes | 0c | 7,414$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf3…7f89backed Yes | 1c | 7,233$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…2eacbacked Yes | 1c | 7,127$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4566…f265backed Yes | 1c | 5,259$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb9…bb3cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,223$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 0c | 5,181$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcb…575ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,023$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…9e16backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 0c | 4,755$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9e…3a2ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,702$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd609…40f4backed Yes | 1c | 4,369$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab44…a5b9backed Yes | 0c | 4,210$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 0c | 4,117$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2283…35c4backed Yes | 1c | 4,045$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bb…1329backed Yes | 1c | 3,759$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe898…178abacked Yes | 1c | 3,291$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfadd…3712backed Yes | 0c | 3,125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 3,031$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b8…b998backed Yes | 1c | 2,855$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b1…4a2dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,851$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5987…4884backed Yes | 1c | 2,848$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5a…9861backed Yes | 1c | 2,796$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,939$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32db…c7f0backed Yes | 1c | 1,501$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…6bcbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,262$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4003…ebe9backed Yes | 1c | 1,251$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6519…50e1backed Yes | 1c | 1,117$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fc…27d0backed Yes | 1c | 869.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd5…90e2backed Yes | 3c | 751.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…d321backed Yes | 2c | 637.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb84…5685backed Yes | 2c | 453.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of February?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.