Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefa2054d10d6b2f452bae795c68cdb92738dd3769dc1251f3a15274648ad86c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $708,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $630,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $708,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53f8…10d0backed No | 0c | 95,965$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed No | 0c | 66,400$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.49 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc02e…b209backed No | 0c | 43,031$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +178.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…1159backed No | 0c | 31,983$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78cc…c56ebacked No | 1c | 24,219$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0a…40e3backed No | 0c | 23,459$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a2…7c5abacked No | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…80c9backed No | 0c | 20,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…476dbacked No | 0c | 18,124$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…b97dbacked Yes | 79c | 13,000$10,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,666.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed2…9d4bbacked No | 1c | 12,083$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9d…82a7backed No | 1c | 11,564$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…ea4cbacked No | 0c | 11,502$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 24c | 10,456$2,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,504.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…e473backed No | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…a736backed No | 9c | 8,677$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +465.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…b42ebacked No | 0c | 8,200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x740c…d013backed No | 0c | 7,059$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac9…2b63backed No | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 6,404$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.84 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a16…ad87backed No | 0c | 6,361$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…8a7cbacked No | 1c | 5,473$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1f…d29abacked No | 0c | 5,139$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked No | 0c | 5,136$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 4c | 5,131$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed No | 19c | 5,062$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.32 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bb…6a95backed No | 0c | 5,008$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ae…f635backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…694fbacked No | 0c | 4,907$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7277…ab80backed Yes | 74c | 4,369$3,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.57 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b1…bb91backed No | 65c | 4,146$2,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,703.81 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 75c | 4,000$3,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -40%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 21c | 3,956$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.03 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…8381backed No | 1c | 3,900$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 3,750$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4b…04ebbacked No | 7c | 3,699$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 23c | 3,224$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,487.48 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 31c | 3,122$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,169.16 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd63f…9339backed No | 0c | 3,089$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f5…d9d1backed No | 25c | 2,757$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 2c | 2,742$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd027…ef27backed No | 1c | 2,387$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7588…9c0abacked No | 9c | 2,028$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e5…66b2backed No | 13c | 2,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed No | 13c | 1,995$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 5cpaid | +267.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 1c | 1,947$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed No | 1c | 1,807$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 82 | 4.9%4 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f0…476fbacked No | 1c | 1,564$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 78c | 1,556$1,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.45 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 1,538$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…fdfebacked Yes | 77c | 1,500$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 72cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcb…e95fbacked No | 1c | 1,433$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 65c | 1,413$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.88 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd609…40f4backed No | 1c | 1,410$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 1,409$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcee…0f35backed No | 66c | 1,306$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x665b…73babacked Yes | 49c | 1,135$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fac…3e5abacked No | 4c | 1,007$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 10c | 999.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6e…1d97backed No | 4c | 948.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…23d4backed No | 9c | 926$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed Yes | 32c | 925.8$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.54 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x353c…682fbacked No | 23c | 913.24$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.78 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…1f5bbacked No | 10c | 900$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6594…9a61backed No | 23c | 871.42$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 79c | 867.68$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.1 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…6a86backed Yes | 77c | 852.69$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa46f…d199backed No | 25c | 807.72$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 80c | 806$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.8 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8476…6461backed No | 8c | 800$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4f…6232backed Yes | 79c | 732.87$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.9 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…47c4backed No | 14c | 715$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 42c | 650.5$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.44 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cc…6135backed No | 8c | 649.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 8c | 646.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe973…4dc0backed No | 8c | 638.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…f694backed Yes | 35c | 628.52$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 12c | 600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Yes | 79c | 580.94$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.81 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1b…a122backed No | 11c | 550.58$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf23e…6052backed Yes | 76c | 549.99$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 8c | 535.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 7c | 532.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…f13cbacked No | 13c | 526.52$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d98…b9c9backed No | 19c | 525.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +270.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 80c | 501$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.8 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 80c | 501$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.8 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 24c | 465.72$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.02 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 71c | 445.62$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.34 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb34…a1cdbacked No | 7c | 444.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9846…ca9ebacked No | 25c | 440.66$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.17 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 24c | 435.98$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.12 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x367a…1183backed No | 24c | 417.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21cd…bf5cbacked No | 11c | 365.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77a0…7fd7backed No | 77c | 359.96$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…340cbacked No | 23c | 359.59$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x917c…66f2backed Yes | 80c | 312$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…657cbacked No | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -69%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x612e…8626backed No | 20c | 295.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x864f…1ed1backed No | 8c | 275.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of February?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of February?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.