TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6d89…340c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
168
Categories scored
30
Categories below 50
18

Best Category: Premier League, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 57 out of 100; worst NBA at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST2536%9 W · 16 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$32.68
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.98
Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+96.1%+$26.55
First enacted funding bill include ACA premium subsidy extension?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$33.28
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,072Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$1,071.71
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$182.96
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+92.3%+$23.88
Will Cuomo endorse Eric Adams?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+61%+$67.44
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$203Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+230.7%+$469.01
Will Trump visit the Western Wall by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$51
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+300%+$150.81
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.39
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$74
Will the Government shutdown end October 15-18backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$38
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT+111%+$200.62
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+116.2%+$186.53
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$54
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$75.39
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$313.33
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$73.97
US government shutdown by October 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$8.49
Will Trump resign today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$27
Elon Musk's security clearance revoked before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
US-EU trade agreement by July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$51
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$25
All 25 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST1566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+23.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Premier League — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liverpool FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$77.02
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+150.3%+$126.89
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$416Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+38.9%+$161.65
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)backed Arsenal FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$49.07
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$262Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+74.1%+$194.49
Manchester City FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+56.3%+$64.47
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+58.7%+$16.68
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$16.38
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$76.46
Will Manchester United vs. Brighton end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$123.61
Newcastle vs. Fulham: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.35
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$6.83
Will Wolves vs. Brighton end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+244.8%+$33
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$19.5
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT+28.9%+$12.32
All 15 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+85.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+1,411.6%+$242.8
Apple Vision Pro 2 released by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.99
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$226.66
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.2
Will Apple be the second most valuable company on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$14.14
OpenAI browser in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.6
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$49.75
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+209.9%+$199.28
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.31
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$41
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$48
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$38
All 14 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST1338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Chess — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$121.74
Speed Chess QF: Lazavik vs Niemannbacked Niemann · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$113.85
FIDE World Cup 2025 - Maxime Vachier-Lagrave vs Vladislav Artemiev (Advances)backed Vachier-Lagrave · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+131.1%+$115.63
FIDE World Cup 2025 - Wei Yi vs Benjamin Gledura (Advances)backed Yi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+27.6%+$13.62
FIDE World Cup 2025 - Santosh Gujrathi Vidit vs Sam Shankland (Advances)backed Shankland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+158.9%+$55.06
FIDE World Cup 2025 - Yagiz Kaan Erdogmus vs Richard Rapport (Advances)backed Erdogmus · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$21.6
FIDE World Cup 2025 - Ivan Saric vs Parham Maghsoodloo (Advances)backed Maghsoodloo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+25%+$4.55
Will Levon Aronian win the 2025 Grand Chess Tour Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.5
Will Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa win the 2025 Grand Chess Tour Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.52
Will Anish Giri win the 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss chess tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT+659.1%+$228.53
Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss chess tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.97
Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss chess tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.88
Will Hans Moke Niemann win the 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss chess tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.35
All 13 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.15
Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on August 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT+57.4%+$20.55
Will the highest temperature in London be between 67-68°F on August 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.1
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 79-80°F on August 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.16
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 77-78°F on August 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT+174.3%+$24.78
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 91-92°F on July 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.2
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 89-90°F on July 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$163.72
Will the highest temperature in London be between 87-88°F on June 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT+30.8%+$48.82
Will the highest temperature in London be between 85-86°F on June 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT+27.7%+$74.47
Will the highest temperature in London be between 85-86°F on June 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+42.7%+$41.92
Will the highest temperature in London be between 81-82°F on June 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in London be between 80-81°F on June 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT+38.8%+$32.8
All 12 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1010%1 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick39cpaid-81.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.16
Pacers vs. Lakersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$114.26
Rockets vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$381Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$380.81
Hawks vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$546Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$546.38
Spurs vs. Bullsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+88.5%+$56.07
Lakers vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$20.59
Spurs vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.4
Clippers vs. Jazz: O/U 228.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$191.51
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$151.32
Celtics vs. Raptorsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.76
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-79%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mikie Sherrill win by >14%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$189.26
Will James Solomon win the 2025 Jersey City mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$20.75
Will Jim McGreevey win the 2025 Jersey City mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$39.62
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 30% or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Zohran Mamdani Parlaybacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+88.7%+$12.49
Will Zohran Mamdani win Staten Island in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$12.38
Will Hakeem Jeffries endorse Mamdani?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.8
All 9 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Nov 23, 2025, EST862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick37cpaid+32%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 25, 2025, EDT825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will turnout be between 40% and 44% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+192.1%+$147.85
Will turnout be between 36% and 40% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.09
Will turnout be less than 36% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.09
Will Jim Gavin win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$349.68
Will Yuichiro Tamaki be the next Prime Minister of Japan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$58.05
Will Olivier Faure be the next Prime Minister of France?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.46
Will there be no new Prime Minister of France?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.43
Yoon arrested by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$39.6
All 8 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 8, 2025, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-26.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
MLB — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Oct 22, 2025, EDT683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+54.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Champions League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Nov 8, 2025, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 11, 2025, EST560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Eagles vs. Packersbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$241Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+30.9%+$74.59
Lions vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$23.35
49ers vs. Buccaneersbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$10.01
Spread: Broncos (-7.5)backed Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Spread: Eagles (-7.5)backed Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.14
All 5 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Oct 4, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayern München win on 2025-10-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$27.44
Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$9.62
All 2 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Oct 18, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona vs. Girona end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.72
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+35.2%+$28.31
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Nov 15, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Oct 16, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Gen.G (BO1)backed Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$150.06
LoL: T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$70.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+170.3%+$34.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$33
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$63.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$82.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$464Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$464.38
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Oct 5, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.17
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Sep 14, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford backed Canelo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Oct 3, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Porto vs. Crvena Zvezda end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 22, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.