TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strike on Yemen by October 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,100
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$70,236

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,100 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes8c5,072$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.7142818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82b1…7579backed Yes50c4,896$2,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,447.837741.6%32 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes30c3,088$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941.4140828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes11c3,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3202814.3%4 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick8cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes1c2,543$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0742738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked No70c2,254$1,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.375927.1%16 W · 43 L-8.4wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-35.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c2,187$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.331,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes5c2,179$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.336118%11 W · 50 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick20cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7c8…bc64backed No61c1,500$909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.98333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed No79c1,412$1,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.198056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf00a…c77cbacked No51c1,316$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.964753.2%25 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes21c1,273$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.397817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b17…96c9backed Yes2c1,187$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+257.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x815f…4a6ebacked Yes14c1,049$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5119…e038backed Yes25c1,043$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.021154.5%6 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.29per pick25cpaid+172.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2029129.9%87 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+30.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0faf…d0d9backed No72c954.59$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.4717347.4%82 W · 91 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7bd…2d46backed Yes14c856.66$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+80.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe88…90f5backed Yes5c802.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405225%13 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick25cpaid-50.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6614…39cfbacked Yes27c749.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbc7…316fbacked Yes6c709.51$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed No65c705$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.58552.9%45 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c638.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8877636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa1…62dbbacked Yes6c634.55$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55df…cbefbacked Yes16c625$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91ff…8f40backed No58c527.64$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.582035%7 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes4c507.52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2424234.3%83 W · 159 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e79…2d68backed Yes51c487.03$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes15c450$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.54769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes41c400$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16319428.9%56 W · 138 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d89…340cbacked No50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick37cpaid+32%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc53…9754backed Yes8c391.37$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.827025.7%18 W · 52 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No65c373.19$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.3114827%40 W · 108 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd02e…4cf2backed No61c354.45$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.921384.6%11 W · 2 L+3.5wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+57.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa53b…d12cbacked Yes3c339.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.260%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e85…8414backed Yes56c318.61$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1772231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-24.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes8c307.68$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.413588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No53c302.66$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.0445843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6540…ccc5backed No53c299.98$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.992055%11 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb011…2d13backed No64c296.67$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.682138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eed…73d0backed No59c295.4$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-43.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes30c268.5$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8038237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60d3…4cb9backed No77c255.52$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked No59c247.25$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.7913250%66 W · 66 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes38c237.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4456336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No52c232.12$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.5340939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc75…b64dbacked No73c210$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.93754.1%20 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5903…f218backed No39c201.28$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.482420.8%5 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-60%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8616…1026backed Yes39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d6b…916abacked Yes14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10047334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdda3…d55fbacked No74c193$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.18728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e27…592dbacked Yes55c181.6$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-53.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed No77c181.52$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.971952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f93…0b9abacked Yes56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2f…9e9abacked No55c173.77$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.77850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa244…8e63backed Yes34c162.81$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5611531.3%36 W · 79 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed Yes34c160.91$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.295855.2%32 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc02…958abacked No65c160.32$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe64b…ce05backed Yes10c157.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151850%9 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+31.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d73…d915backed Yes37c152.82$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.541040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+71%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes9c152.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9531719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc34a…6007backed No67c128.08$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1221160.7%128 W · 83 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x69ad…28a3backed No50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac5…28d4backed No60c116.67$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.67560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+43.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x429a…77fbbacked Yes43c115$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.45425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-62.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce9f…ee16backed Yes18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No50c110.68$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.658927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93cd…f8d7backed Yes49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49156.7%1 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick29cpaid-82%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed No40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6033337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2715331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32be…bac4backed Yes47c99.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.55952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.8wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb9a4…996dbacked No66c91.19$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.123633.3%12 W · 24 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-43.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xda67…8028backed Yes50c86.1$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes21c82.04$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8926616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x68b7…c0bcbacked No56c77.98$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.31955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed No68c76.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6413360.9%81 W · 52 L+18.4wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8d67…57bbbacked Yes48c73.94$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.491723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5125…601abacked Yes51c60.78$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-38.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37ef…a37abacked Yes39c58.04$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.43132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked No64c55.51$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.972462.5%15 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x515a…269abacked Yes73c55.15$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-60.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc6b…d720backed Yes48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0247…8a56backed No52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7dc…b1d3backed Yes40c49.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+30.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a85…a309backed No51c49.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab70…2c34backed No65c46.3$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+112.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9359…4aeebacked Yes38c39.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.056622.7%15 W · 51 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d92…e287backed No55c36.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cb3…5297backed Yes57c35.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick37cpaid-81.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x52a8…9bafbacked Yes30c35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.54641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b93…9fbebacked No62c32.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b22…8defbacked Yes44c30.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc3e…cefdbacked Yes40c30.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-66.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x89bc…dddcbacked Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.12770.4%19 W · 8 L+4.5wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+41.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes39c28.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3110153.5%54 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdce7…f553backed No69c28.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.91837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4293…9d3ebacked No71c27.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.99580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4667…94a3backed No50c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid0%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b2b…d2f2backed Yes47c22.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.69666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+63.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.