TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pacers vs. Lakers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lakersof Pacers, Lakers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,624,256

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,624,256 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 895 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Pacers23c110,268$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,00036549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked Pacers22c100,000$22,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,999.911955.5%66 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pacers7c95,715$6,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,966.594,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Pacers23c63,872$14,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,690.6666248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked Pacers10c56,176$5,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,353.8420352.7%107 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pacers7c50,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Pacers21c48,000$10,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,079.8440446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Pacers1c46,478$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.6926637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5e9…4044backed Pacers23c45,264$10,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,410.729053.3%48 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Pacers10c44,205$4,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,616.242,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00d5…ed84backed Pacers23c43,328$9,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,965.4717050%85 W · 85 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Pacers21c36,000$7,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,559.899018.9%17 W · 73 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Lakers79c31,194$24,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,652.334,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Pacers7c31,028$2,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,161.6548845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Pacers21c30,450$6,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,394.5123147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Pacers19c30,261$5,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,829.8846928.4%133 W · 336 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8aba…4961backed Pacers7c30,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1007150.7%36 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Pacers6c28,533$1,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,705.091,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Pacers13c27,541$3,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,511.071,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Lakers78c27,407$21,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,029.611,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Pacers21c26,982$5,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,732.7641832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Lakers79c25,000$19,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,249.9934456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Pacers20c24,700$4,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,94028554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Lakers77c24,087$18,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,540.081,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lakers78c23,338$18,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,047.419,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Pacers18c22,340$4,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,021.2327424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Pacers7c22,103$1,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,461.241,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Pacers19c21,431$4,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,071.831,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Pacers7c21,322$1,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,492.5452460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5aa…9134backed Pacers22c21,169$4,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,657.119957.8%115 W · 84 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Lakers77c20,713$16,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,660.441,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Pacers21c20,018$4,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,203.8736359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed Lakers78c20,000$15,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,299.9920454.9%112 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Pacers21c20,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,199.9759653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e16…0127backed Pacers22c19,224$4,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,165.222143%95 W · 126 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2cf…d1e7backed Lakers79c19,116$15,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,108.013271.9%23 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ff3…1aa9backed Pacers22c18,646$4,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,102.1219645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pacers19c17,413$3,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,264.465,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Pacers7c17,000$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.31,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Lakers78c15,426$12,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,353.722,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Pacers0c14,504$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.815213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Lakers80c14,320$11,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,932.371,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Pacers19c13,048$2,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,509.5747028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc869…8a6ebacked Lakers78c12,992$10,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,906.3812951.9%67 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Pacers20c12,772$2,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,554.4123257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Lakers77c12,700$9,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,857.884,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92d8…0924backed Pacers22c12,600$2,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,771.8924045.4%109 W · 131 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8702…6304backed Pacers5c11,401$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.549026.7%24 W · 66 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbce1…86afbacked Pacers4c11,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4403542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Pacers19c10,929$2,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,094.7926353.6%141 W · 122 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Pacers10c10,716$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.511,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffb…e82abacked Pacers3c10,347$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.3521137.9%80 W · 131 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-29.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Pacers19c10,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Pacers21c10,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1001,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Pacers19c10,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ffe…cb18backed Pacers0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x46bc…2d14backed Pacers5c10,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50018931.2%59 W · 130 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x61ce…e4b0backed Pacers10c9,962$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.133327.3%9 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-38.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Pacers21c9,524$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Pacers22c9,500$2,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,089.932540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Pacers0c9,410$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.228820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Lakers80c9,313$7,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,862.5932039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Pacers10c9,139$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.272,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Lakers78c8,326$6,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,831.6759347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Lakers80c8,091$6,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,647.633,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Pacers4c8,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29078445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1a…5abfbacked Pacers21c7,938$1,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,666.883946.2%18 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x92f3…f8e5backed Lakers78c7,616$5,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,675.58666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd181…8fe3backed Pacers20c7,276$1,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,483.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Lakers80c6,920$5,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.593,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe49…9c28backed Lakers80c6,660$5,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,356.779757.7%56 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d43…ce68backed Pacers9c6,471$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60017247.7%82 W · 90 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pacers10c6,379$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.041,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7960…734dbacked Lakers79c6,344$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,343.753669.4%25 W · 11 L+4.9wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+36.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5f82…9b01backed Pacers7c6,156$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.9516635.5%59 W · 107 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bff…1fbbbacked Lakers79c6,126$4,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.49250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x853e…0d8cbacked Pacers20c5,707$1,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150.9612042.5%51 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b30…29a4backed Lakers79c5,570$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.711020%2 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-47.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0577…caa7backed Pacers21c5,567$1,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1691127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Lakers77c5,480$4,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,281.352,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Pacers21c5,188$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.794,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Pacers19c5,100$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9691,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Pacers7c5,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Lakers78c4,914$3,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,074.631,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pacers7c4,825$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.268,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Pacers20c4,772$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.7585344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Pacers20c4,745$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92984150.3%423 W · 418 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dd2…ae72backed Pacers21c4,590$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.9540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+87.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Lakers78c4,491$3,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.8735251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80c3…5ac7backed Lakers79c4,337$3,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.76453.1%34 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f3b…0cf9backed Pacers7c4,028$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.9422159.7%132 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd222…6441backed Pacers20c4,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Lakers78c4,000$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88038649.7%192 W · 194 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x803e…2059backed Pacers21c4,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.991942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x260b…1ab1backed Pacers20c3,856$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.15728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c03…d894backed Lakers78c3,846$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.175848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Pacers21c3,787$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.5686641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Pacers19c3,763$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70035438.1%135 W · 219 L+1.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x208f…1050backed Lakers79c3,744$2,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8180…f4dabacked Pacers28c3,608$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00043352.2%226 W · 207 L+19.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.