TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 22.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,301

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,301 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x339a…1eaebacked No58c435.32$251 inLost-$250.521,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe43c…ccd5backed No59c421.61$249 inLost-$248.751656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7094…a734backed Yes41c219.64$90 inWon+$129.591361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+37%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Yes42c214.29$90 inWon+$124.2993145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x739a…f78abacked Yes41c201.97$83 inWon+$119.161650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c9d…8498backed Yes40c156$62 inWon+$93.65648.2%27 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No59c153$90 inLost-$90.324,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No60c128.46$77 inLost-$77.0821243.4%92 W · 120 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e55…be6fbacked Yes43c114.06$49 inWon+$65.064037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f2c…9374backed Yes41c107.24$44 inWon+$63.272040%8 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No57c87.71$50 inLost-$5097049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47b8…76f2backed Yes43c86.28$37 inWon+$49.282352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef4e…a79abacked Yes43c81.51$35 inWon+$46.513844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9450…d9e6backed Yes42c49.42$21 inWon+$28.741546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No58c44.66$26 inLost-$26.1292058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed Yes39c42.61$17 inWon+$25.991,08442.4%460 W · 624 L-48.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec15…9b0cbacked No61c40.97$25 inLost-$24.9928536.8%105 W · 180 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2691…f3b8backed Yes42c35.61$15 inWon+$20.614131.7%13 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No60c27.71$16 inLost-$16.583158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed No58c19.99$12 inLost-$11.5996956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.