Us Politics · resolved market
First enacted funding bill include ACA premium subsidy extension?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d4739df8e5f74c0028c78b6fb12ee96db39704275a79f77d8f8b47136ad7932
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 18c | 15,634$2,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,772.69 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 14,010$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.86 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c14…8fe6backed Yes | 4c | 4,872$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd02e…4cf2backed Yes | 61c | 4,129$2,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,498.37 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 8c | 4,077$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.01 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83f1…dcd3backed Yes | 9c | 3,480$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes | 14c | 3,054$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.83 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e82…6bacbacked No | 21c | 1,957$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +236.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 1,759$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x750a…d86cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,660$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,496$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…c427backed No | 66c | 1,448$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.28 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x416d…4439backed Yes | 8c | 1,437$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed Yes | 18c | 1,362$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.76 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked No | 75c | 1,142$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.14 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cf…2c48backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 858.99$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.68 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked Yes | 56c | 838.41$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.51 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…9d86backed Yes | 2c | 826.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe95c…01efbacked Yes | 60c | 802.59$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…9d39backed No | 54c | 784.55$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.6 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc270…dfdebacked Yes | 44c | 752.2$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…3c45backed Yes | 14c | 750$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9515…10d7backed Yes | 48c | 698.43$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 625.96$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.66 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked Yes | 3c | 500.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e73…a236backed Yes | 10c | 470.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x338e…646ebacked Yes | 5c | 456.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8768…dd9bbacked No | 71c | 443.12$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1824…571abacked Yes | 2c | 439.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…340cbacked Yes | 8c | 431.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 33c | 372.86$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.14 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6471…457abacked Yes | 8c | 360$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3324…88e3backed Yes | 33c | 306.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -59%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 37c | 285.77$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.42 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0631…d4f0backed Yes | 18c | 271.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 35c | 265.78$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.71 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…9e90backed Yes | 9c | 260$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…64c0backed No | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 237.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9a71backed Yes | 35c | 229.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.48 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 14c | 217$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 216.68$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf9…b4f5backed Yes | 50c | 196.17$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 25c | 193$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…4513backed Yes | 55c | 180.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…ae08backed Yes | 22c | 165.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5e…1773backed Yes | 63c | 159.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…5f13backed Yes | 71c | 158.65$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 30c | 151.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…90babacked Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf70f…d753backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 52c | 140$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92ea…ff82backed Yes | 22c | 139.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b34…4c88backed Yes | 20c | 129.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…1d72backed Yes | 8c | 129.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefab…b927backed Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…19fcbacked Yes | 10c | 119.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95ca…9c1ebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…2759backed Yes | 58c | 99.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 58c | 94.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…d0d3backed No | 44c | 90$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 15c | 88.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked Yes | 36c | 88.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +8.4wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…8776backed Yes | 49c | 82.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…4738backed Yes | 54c | 73.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ce…6fb2backed Yes | 62c | 72.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8e…2c6abacked Yes | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…204abacked No | 57c | 70.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0529…8909backed Yes | 32c | 59.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…ef9fbacked No | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 55c | 37.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0f…7e6dbacked No | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 55c | 33.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 61c | 32.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 51c | 30.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x026b…f975backed Yes | 67c | 29.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…67c4backed No | 70c | 27.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 60cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a4…c959backed Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c9…1824backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ce…dbbbbacked Yes | 60c | 16.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.