TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Zohran Mamdani win by 30% or more?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,396,218
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$685,731

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,396,218 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x036e…9276backed Yes4c57,675$2,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,515.482737%10 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes4c53,796$2,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,352.845328.3%15 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes4c50,950$1,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,938.374650%23 W · 23 L+7.2wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes3c37,457$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,201.432236.4%8 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+20.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes3c36,609$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,215.125251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x41ea…7a3dbacked Yes4c34,933$1,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,437.313043.3%13 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x32be…58dbbacked Yes3c24,586$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.7480%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9682…738bbacked Yes2c18,558$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.44728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+76.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes4c18,411$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.44611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes4c18,000$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.293030%9 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed Yes4c14,219$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.71233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes6c13,453$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.312729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x05a9…7175backed Yes0c11,560$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes3c10,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-75%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4b9…cf5ebacked Yes4c9,000$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes2c8,149$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.84185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf71f…ad0ebacked Yes4c7,930$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes3c7,477$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.83180%0 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74f8…4974backed Yes5c5,472$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.48742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes5c5,449$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-58.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2365…8eb9backed Yes4c5,000$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.452437.5%9 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.18per pick20cpaid+104.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes4c4,461$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.48551.8%1 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-85.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a5…9de7backed Yes3c4,388$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.75130%0 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89d5…b3ecbacked Yes6c4,351$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde07…136bbacked Yes4c4,207$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.48333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+59.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e9c…1115backed Yes0c4,080$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-40.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43c4…ea38backed Yes1c3,998$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4469…f927backed Yes5c3,720$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes5c3,228$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.27749.4%38 W · 39 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+34.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c3,088$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.4134129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes5c3,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140263.8%1 W · 25 L-4.8wins-0.19per pick22cpaid-65%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes5c3,000$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1535044%22 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7131…29ccbacked Yes5c2,767$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.39666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c2,418$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8349511.5%57 W · 438 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes5c2,413$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.122927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed Yes4c2,379$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.22733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+35.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59fb…eceabacked Yes5c2,300$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4247…c6b0backed Yes3c2,222$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.55933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0739…8f90backed Yes5c2,203$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.13911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed Yes4c2,109$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.521931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes5c2,100$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.3742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes4c2,083$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.99585.2%3 W · 55 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Yes5c2,018$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.77922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-70.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8107…4f39backed Yes5c2,016$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-56.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes5c2,003$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005836.2%21 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8d2…d6d2backed Yes3c2,000$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6780%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes5c2,000$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-80.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes8c1,860$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1475145.1%23 W · 28 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+103%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes6c1,711$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.525738.6%22 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked Yes3c1,500$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.52330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+39.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe61f…8beebacked Yes7c1,466$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ffe…b69dbacked Yes6c1,450$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.28450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee05…812fbacked Yes5c1,420$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9582…9891backed Yes7c1,385$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9401…e9ffbacked Yes8c1,300$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1062313%3 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes4c1,200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes4c1,200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3e2…8d43backed Yes4c1,200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…12afbacked Yes4c1,195$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb911…a649backed Yes4c1,192$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes9c1,185$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8821033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad7d…f545backed Yes3c1,169$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cbb…283fbacked Yes4c1,163$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcda8…4902backed Yes4c1,076$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes5c1,015$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.721127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf492…3061backed Yes5c1,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-12.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbff7…3005backed Yes3c1,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes4c999.97$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710740.2%43 W · 64 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+52.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes5c999.97$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes3c999.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.992114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-66.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3327…11debacked Yes6c997.47$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.91118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8de2…8483backed Yes5c973$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.721612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-68.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd11e…1f23backed Yes6c941.76$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes6c907.92$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.041428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes3c900$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.914356.6%81 W · 62 L+18.5wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4ed0…4b4bbacked Yes5c897.35$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f9…f78ebacked Yes4c893.79$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick27cpaid+132.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf29d…249bbacked Yes3c879.86$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa2…36f6backed Yes5c811.95$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a4…c8a2backed Yes4c808.58$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301250%6 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6af4…4f1ebacked Yes6c784.07$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-45.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4021…956abacked Yes7c762.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5355…fae9backed Yes4c750$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.65742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+30.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d89…340cbacked Yes5c700$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-79%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b9…197dbacked Yes4c670.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-41.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b78…2637backed Yes5c647.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.21728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-49.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4b…c1cabacked Yes10c633$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x853b…eff5backed Yes3c606.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+72.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb28c…be33backed Yes5c600$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.81030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe24e…ef9fbacked Yes6c599.94$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.58933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x130b…4d64backed Yes7c560$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd47c…77f4backed Yes4c536.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed Yes7c528.57$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.81225%3 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-32.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2b…109abacked Yes4c526.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e6d…e408backed Yes4c516.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06bc…2887backed Yes4c509.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x275f…e86dbacked Yes4c505.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8150%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes3c500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.132123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes3c500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.44055%22 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.