TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Zohran Mamdani not win the 2025 New York City mayoral election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,060,740
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$851,171

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,060,740 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd4d3…c5afbacked Yes0c66,075$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Yes9c62,056$5,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,442.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes5c54,521$2,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,841.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f2e…2d58backed Yes0c43,870$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes6c36,679$2,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,21610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15d4…6dddbacked Yes5c36,097$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,960.1944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes5c26,699$1,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,396.37611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes6c22,595$1,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,308.27731.2%24 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f0…90c7backed Yes1c22,331$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.32333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e31…cc7bbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8682…e7d5backed Yes0c18,703$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81a1…b745backed Yes0c18,678$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c8a…61f3backed Yes0c18,643$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb217…4aa4backed Yes0c18,613$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9916…a2b2backed Yes1c18,540$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.23119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-86.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e7…55ccbacked Yes0c18,336$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.28616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bf1…6d22backed Yes0c18,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa89b…c029backed Yes0c15,562$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf6b…db3abacked Yes0c15,490$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef60…2f37backed Yes0c15,467$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc579…5385backed Yes0c15,434$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2bc…a9bfbacked Yes0c15,403$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38b4…797cbacked Yes0c15,368$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x750f…f2c5backed Yes0c15,345$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b0e…32c2backed Yes0c15,322$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34c8…ce5ebacked Yes0c15,286$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x858e…10c7backed Yes0c15,248$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a9…13aebacked Yes0c15,210$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebea…9caebacked Yes0c15,175$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b5f…e9f6backed Yes0c15,152$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d52…a725backed Yes0c15,117$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25a0…6fe9backed Yes0c15,091$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bf3…9629backed Yes0c15,057$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf87e…abcabacked Yes0c15,019$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd087…9e67backed Yes0c14,988$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd861…1df8backed Yes0c14,944$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1817…460cbacked Yes0c14,906$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e49…a4babacked Yes0c14,865$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1762…77b4backed Yes0c14,825$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa236…fb15backed Yes0c14,785$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb3…42c9backed Yes0c14,759$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6c1…a7b3backed Yes0c14,729$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb442…2f7ebacked Yes0c14,704$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4265…9833backed Yes0c14,666$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c9a…1bcabacked Yes0c14,626$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2153…ab8cbacked Yes0c14,596$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13d0…c58ebacked Yes0c14,571$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x564c…949abacked Yes0c14,534$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffa…361fbacked Yes0c14,498$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d0d…5844backed Yes0c14,462$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc460…e16abacked Yes0c14,425$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x744d…31cabacked Yes0c14,394$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0237…9292backed Yes0c14,369$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79f6…6fbabacked Yes0c14,339$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbd2…59f0backed Yes5c14,313$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94f9…70b6backed Yes0c14,305$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c88…6307backed Yes0c14,268$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48df…e504backed Yes0c14,234$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85bd…e50abacked Yes0c14,202$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67c1…4badbacked Yes0c14,163$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x698a…ef97backed Yes0c14,134$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeead…9aeabacked Yes0c14,102$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd08c…580ebacked Yes0c14,075$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb566…008bbacked Yes0c14,040$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61d0…e7eabacked Yes0c14,012$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f09…d9f0backed Yes0c13,972$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed71…01b6backed Yes0c13,937$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60f2…785dbacked Yes0c13,900$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1712…5d11backed Yes0c13,868$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c2b…ca6ebacked Yes0c13,807$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f41…66bebacked Yes0c13,777$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8582…aa84backed Yes0c13,751$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x270e…9197backed Yes0c13,721$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8404…7a75backed Yes0c13,694$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8926…5aacbacked Yes7c13,447$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.44728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+53.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes5c12,747$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.363915.4%6 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x202b…971abacked Yes8c12,214$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001612.5%2 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-78.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x76d2…6bfcbacked Yes0c12,074$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.07333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick4cpaid+203%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfacd…9109backed Yes7c11,996$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes5c11,224$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.422630.8%8 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-44.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x030e…5652backed Yes7c11,209$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.75425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+78.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71ed…d9ebbacked Yes8c10,799$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.4940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3151…4393backed Yes4c10,394$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.781127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-31.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d7a…dba4backed Yes0c10,298$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes7c10,051$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.831225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-51.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d2d…cac3backed Yes7c10,000$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.34333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+88.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7518…a159backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75a1…52eebacked Yes0c9,400$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab26…99b0backed Yes4c8,988$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.15425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x220c…43c8backed Yes8c8,520$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes6c7,911$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.921060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55dd…1cccbacked Yes8c7,274$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.5425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8de2…8483backed Yes3c7,003$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.581612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-68.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0084…84c6backed Yes0c6,550$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77e4…d00bbacked Yes5c6,226$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc5…5a8dbacked Yes5c5,807$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x711b…fc5cbacked Yes5c5,179$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8138…3c88backed Yes6c5,042$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c4,687$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.8834129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8193…0e5abacked Yes8c4,587$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+92.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.