TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x036e…9276

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
54
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: F1, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category F1 at 55 out of 100; worst Venezuela at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST2737%10 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eric Adams get over 1% in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$783Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+252.1%+$1,974.97
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 6-9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$330.43
Will Mikie Sherrill win by less than 3%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14,282Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+39.3%+$5,616.28
Larger Margin of Victory: Virginia or New Jersey Governor?backed New Jersey · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$392Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$391.99
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be 36% or higher?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,442Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+47.3%+$1,154.94
Will Andrew Cuomo get between 25% and 30% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$736Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$735.82
Will Zohran Mamdani win 4 boroughs in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,783Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$1,783.23
Will Curtis Sliwa win Staten Island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$65.16
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$2,799Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$2,798.96
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 50% and 60% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$5,239Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+112.1%+$5,872.01
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20–25%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$486Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$486.34
Will Zohran Mamdani win by less than 5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$603Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$602.83
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10–15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$423Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$422.73
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 30% or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$2,515Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$2,515.48
Will Zohran Mamdani win by more than 25%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$883Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$882.85
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$24,443Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$24,442.69
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11,176Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$11,176.29
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$32,078Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+27.4%+$8,778.69
Will Andrew Cuomo win Staten Island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,463Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+243%+$3,554.83
Will Zohran Mamdani win The Bronx in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,322Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+38.9%+$514.05
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 12-15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$645Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$644.6
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 15-18%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$24,792Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+38.2%+$9,480.51
Will Jay Jones win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$27,734Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+43.7%+$12,116.25
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$1,828Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$1,828.46
Will Hakeem Jeffries endorse Mamdani?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30,746Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+52.6%+$16,165.72
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Nov 14, 2025, EST825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in October 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$6,171Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$6,171.31
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in October 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,642Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+33.4%+$882.57
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in October 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$548Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$548.43
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in October 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$19.58
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in August 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$80.01
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in August 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$686Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT+366.8%+$2,516.88
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$128.19
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$143.03
All 8 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
F1 — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 3, 2025, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-48.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces in Venezuela by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$2,501Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,501.49
Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$128,250Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+61.5%+$78,913.96
US forces in Venezuela by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$504Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$504.08
All 3 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia by September 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$4,914Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$4,721.15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.