Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfaa09b34503d60b6dd1ed88ed31e02d50bc09c19a84cd50fb375e4f534ddf72b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $513,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $293,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $513,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 0c | 91,200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 4c | 71,514$2,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,561.5 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 5c | 58,672$2,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,760.82 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc060…8956backed Yes | 1c | 25,491$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 33c | 23,241$7,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,738.78 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 3c | 22,891$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.4 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…b623backed Yes | 1c | 15,849$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.54 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x389c…99d1backed Yes | 1c | 13,675$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.34 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 25c | 13,607$3,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,365.32 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 6c | 10,821$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.14 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 6c | 6,164$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.32 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 23c | 5,921$1,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341.36 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 5,550$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…aef7backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…9e01backed Yes | 12c | 3,303$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.04 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 4c | 3,287$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.07 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 5c | 2,892$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.43 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 1,876$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 83 | 3.6%3 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd86d…648dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,757$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 5c | 1,395$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.34 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb6…1841backed Yes | 47c | 1,349$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f8…61b7backed Yes | 1c | 1,214$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed Yes | 26c | 1,199$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.55 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 1,167$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.05 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed Yes | 4c | 1,129$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe6…b39ebacked Yes | 38c | 935.01$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.02 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x174a…f2cebacked Yes | 11c | 800$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036e…9276backed Yes | 16c | 781$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 18c | 772.47$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.74 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 58c | 745.94$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.51 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…3ef7backed Yes | 38c | 561.77$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.57 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 73c | 469.89$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.12 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 463.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c38…f48abacked Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0b…5e43backed Yes | 11c | 447.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 51c | 350$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.5 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1623…55debacked Yes | 3c | 332$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 20c | 328.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf928…6b7ebacked Yes | 9c | 284.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 76c | 268.33$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…795abacked Yes | 5c | 260.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed No | 52c | 255.23$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…3381backed Yes | 9c | 249.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4a…73d2backed Yes | 5c | 236.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 222.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +148.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes | 35c | 163$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 60c | 149.75$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.79 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 60c | 103.16$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 103$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d24…5feebacked No | 64c | 50.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e03…c8f4backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b4…1cbabacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce2…d48cbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 74c | 41.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…1240backed No | 64c | 36.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 31.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c44…9b54backed No | 63c | 31.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…933abacked No | 63c | 31.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…136bbacked No | 73c | 31.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…1497backed No | 55c | 30.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1a…0d7ebacked No | 50c | 29.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd216…f930backed No | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87b1…833bbacked Yes | 48c | 26.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…7a39backed Yes | 58c | 24.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb51…5b70backed No | 50c | 21.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b8…2f3bbacked Yes | 57c | 20.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x667a…2d6bbacked Yes | 58c | 18.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca19…b505backed No | 58c | 18.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4920…7d94backed Yes | 58c | 17.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 0.90–0.94ºC in July 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 0.90ºC in July 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in July 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.