Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 0.90–0.94ºC in July 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62cdae7f4d60ad8221323df86a8833b1343ffed649d3a55dfea905742da754c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $475,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $365,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $475,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 1c | 108,287$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.46 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 1c | 45,087$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.42 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…aef7backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 0c | 19,231$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 16c | 8,884$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.19 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…b623backed Yes | 1c | 7,281$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 15c | 7,082$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.38 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 1c | 6,092$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.09 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 5,817$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 12c | 4,630$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.6 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 16c | 4,266$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.24 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 7c | 2,232$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.98 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c38…f48abacked Yes | 1c | 2,109$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed Yes | 18c | 2,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 16c | 1,680$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +257.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 1,418$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,274$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.81 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb6…1841backed Yes | 17c | 1,211$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 10c | 1,141$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.07 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,077$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…9e01backed Yes | 3c | 691.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 4c | 549.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 4c | 399.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…3ef7backed Yes | 12c | 356$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…7624backed Yes | 7c | 270$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 241$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 13c | 222$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce2…d48cbacked Yes | 21c | 100.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 0.90–0.94ºC in July 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 0.90ºC in July 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in July 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.