Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3fb6d5a8a798f9abab8026cb40bc9c2229f74cf79357c835f3ab7387278e06e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $238,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $267,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $238,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 68c | 53,801$36,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,405.67 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 55c | 21,903$12,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,861.22 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 70c | 21,628$15,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,096.37 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…b623backed No | 1c | 20,533$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 45c | 18,391$8,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,079.97 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc060…8956backed No | 1c | 11,938$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 76c | 11,492$8,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,734.06 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked No | 0c | 11,259$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…aef7backed No | 1c | 6,595$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…0ebebacked No | 3c | 6,500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9640…eb27backed No | 2c | 5,005$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed No | 69c | 3,275$2,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,275.47 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…7befbacked Yes | 37c | 2,879$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,809.64 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5400…c159backed No | 2c | 2,382$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 44c | 1,767$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.61 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 56c | 1,416$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.39 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40f…3dd6backed No | 2c | 1,383$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 62c | 1,277$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.82 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe79…9d68backed No | 2c | 1,248$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f9…0f4dbacked No | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes | 32c | 1,000$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +148.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 61c | 666.42$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.65 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed No | 4c | 649.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 44c | 640.59$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed Yes | 56c | 604.98$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.74 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 26c | 600$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 67c | 595.06$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +257.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 560.51$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 37c | 499.98$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.99 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389c…99d1backed No | 4c | 463$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…ca81backed Yes | 61c | 400$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 32c | 399.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…9e01backed Yes | 70c | 394.94$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.08 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 66c | 393.13$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.49 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 21c | 365.97$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.85 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebf…ae75backed Yes | 49c | 355.39$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 60c | 306.52$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.42 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…fdddbacked Yes | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 69c | 299.98$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…3ef7backed Yes | 38c | 294.07$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 68c | 266.5$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.2 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…bf71backed No | 5c | 258$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 53c | 202.9$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.69 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…32e3backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed Yes | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…9474backed Yes | 17c | 148.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 23c | 141.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2711…cd8bbacked Yes | 75c | 130$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 73c | 126.44$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.46 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 27c | 122.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.68 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 23c | 122.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.6 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 68c | 92.86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 16c | 92.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.54 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4a…73d2backed Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…3381backed Yes | 67c | 77.69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe3…00b9backed Yes | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfede…e908backed Yes | 63c | 61.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d24…5feebacked Yes | 46c | 55.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…e0babacked No | 39c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c3…758cbacked No | 58c | 50.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b4…1cbabacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633c…0d68backed Yes | 32c | 49.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 46.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe870…46b9backed Yes | 40c | 43.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c44…9b54backed Yes | 46c | 43.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…1240backed Yes | 46c | 39.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x088b…3a58backed Yes | 76c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5c…d0edbacked No | 39c | 33.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3f…a31ebacked Yes | 60c | 33.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86b…0fb3backed No | 46c | 32.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3c…e6a8backed No | 39c | 32.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a17…ce64backed Yes | 58c | 29.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…a844backed Yes | 64c | 27.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…6b4cbacked Yes | 64c | 23.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc442…638dbacked No | 46c | 22.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e73…8b78backed Yes | 65c | 17.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb6…c31fbacked Yes | 62c | 17.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7732…fa11backed No | 76c | 16.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b09…7a00backed Yes | 63c | 15.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…d18ebacked Yes | 65c | 15.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 0.90–0.94ºC in July 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 0.90ºC in July 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in July 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.