Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07a16019527431deca7a2d36014ca377b8e6953a930df97b3704ae8e330b916f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $358,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $167,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $358,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 22c | 90,745$19,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,764.7 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 67c | 62,795$41,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,875.18 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 1c | 39,358$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.5 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 1c | 29,015$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.25 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Yes | 0c | 22,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389c…99d1backed Yes | 1c | 13,295$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.65 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…0490backed Yes | 0c | 10,023$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -75%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bac…8684backed Yes | 9c | 5,490$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 8c | 4,767$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.14 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…b623backed Yes | 1c | 3,541$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…7135backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 3c | 3,303$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.61 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…7befbacked Yes | 27c | 3,107$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.56 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 10c | 2,713$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 14c | 2,175$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.58 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…5b58backed Yes | 33c | 2,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed Yes | 5c | 1,824$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.35 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3830…8c68backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 71c | 958.38$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.38 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…9e01backed Yes | 5c | 616.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 8c | 588.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 586.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…27eabacked Yes | 38c | 555$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.34 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…ca81backed Yes | 23c | 471$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 371.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 41c | 366.5$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.64 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…4516backed Yes | 38c | 363.77$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ac…84f3backed Yes | 4c | 331.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 102 | 29.4%30 W · 72 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes | 5c | 301.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +148.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 31c | 299.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.3 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 27c | 296.24$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…9474backed Yes | 7c | 295.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…038cbacked Yes | 36c | 274.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 9c | 236.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 32c | 235.07$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 25c | 230$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2b…b404backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 28c | 201.54$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 15c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea5…a58ebacked No | 69c | 145.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c38…f48abacked Yes | 21c | 142.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf518…6932backed Yes | 19c | 134.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 20c | 102$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 121 | 5%6 W · 115 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…3381backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 13c | 92.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c44…9b54backed Yes | 16c | 75.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94c3…758cbacked Yes | 49c | 59.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134d…5a16backed No | 68c | 38.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d1…c018backed No | 68c | 36.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eef…0e99backed No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf770…f4bdbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 0.90–0.94ºC in July 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 0.90ºC in July 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in July 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.