Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani win by less than 5%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9258f3aa2eeb9b09f38f6bf0e011873592ae463f917634ebdf4609c7d42dfefc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x036e…9276backed Yes | 5c | 11,314$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.83 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,001$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030e…5652backed Yes | 15c | 9,225$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 10c | 6,097$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 12c | 5,005$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.5 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 9c | 3,250$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +300.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…ad3bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,789$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 9c | 2,070$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.73 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…3061backed Yes | 8c | 1,120$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 14c | 1,059$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,005$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.53 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4d…1acebacked Yes | 11c | 967.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…df44backed Yes | 9c | 599.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 12c | 500$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb2…79e2backed Yes | 8c | 449.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 15c | 350$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15d4…6dddbacked Yes | 7c | 301$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…f6b5backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a38…f931backed Yes | 9c | 230$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f48…79d5backed Yes | 14c | 180.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 179.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6a5cbacked Yes | 8c | 167.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35d9…a40ebacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 17c | 133.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 81 | 14.8%12 W · 69 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…696bbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 21cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9903…752bbacked Yes | 15c | 121$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x840f…41d2backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 23cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 67c | 76.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by less than 5%?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10–15%?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by 15–20%?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20–25%?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by 5–10%?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by more than 25%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.