Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10–15%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5cb39545723c4f93ffe0712a58a5286fca3d3bb1cda9e0b6aaf2d9b667dbc18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $124,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x036e…9276backed Yes | 2c | 18,644$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.73 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eda…75ddbacked Yes | 2c | 6,605$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…c1c9backed Yes | 0c | 6,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,262$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030e…5652backed Yes | 31c | 5,000$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55c4…4b34backed Yes | 2c | 4,703$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…72debacked Yes | 30c | 4,567$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.55 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…00f8backed Yes | 1c | 4,398$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 8c | 3,338$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 27c | 2,898$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.93 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ee…df72backed Yes | 22c | 2,442$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed Yes | 25c | 2,110$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 2c | 2,022$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 31cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…c1a1backed No | 75c | 1,813$1,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…49b3backed Yes | 1c | 1,757$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 13c | 1,732$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.65 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 26c | 1,600$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -52%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 29c | 999.99$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dff…6238backed Yes | 28c | 917.33$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…4035backed Yes | 28c | 905.09$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 24c | 754.92$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 12c | 734.66$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.42 | 81 | 14.8%12 W · 69 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 79c | 705.13$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.98 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 28c | 646.68$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.05 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…3ba7backed Yes | 16c | 619.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cef…0925backed Yes | 3c | 613.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 33c | 499.98$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 20c | 454$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 15c | 445.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked No | 70c | 411.29$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a1…2390backed Yes | 27c | 378.56$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed No | 75c | 377.58$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.52 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…32afbacked Yes | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…f6b5backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed Yes | 45c | 281.01$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e8…ab20backed Yes | 19c | 281.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.30per pick | 36cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 27c | 274.16$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.02 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 228$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 77c | 217.53$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb186…310cbacked Yes | 29c | 213.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304c…7a74backed Yes | 44c | 139.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 17c | 120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…df88backed Yes | 22c | 118.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b7…37d5backed Yes | 22c | 114.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 66c | 113.18$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6a5cbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed76…d1cebacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 79c | 94$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 91.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2134…0734backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2443…354cbacked Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241d…3914backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…7ba1backed Yes | 34c | 88.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 55c | 81.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 51c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +150%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 72.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…cdaebacked Yes | 27c | 64.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60c8…3c9cbacked Yes | 70c | 63.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…90c9backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…b576backed Yes | 50c | 50.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +77%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…1a4dbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c1…b4aebacked Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80df…3407backed No | 68c | 40.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…5861backed No | 76c | 39.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 30c | 36.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…7d36backed No | 68c | 35.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…1da9backed Yes | 33c | 31.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7362…3da0backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd885…c8dfbacked Yes | 33c | 30.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a38…f931backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 63c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…6863backed No | 69c | 24.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…182abacked No | 68c | 19.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5b…a660backed No | 69c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10–15%?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by 15–20%?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20–25%?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by 5–10%?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by less than 5%?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by more than 25%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.