Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20–25%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1c7c4ee47e8b65fb55ed48ba16082a5fc9fbdf418db8d4ac7cb0041fca2ab74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x036e…9276backed Yes | 15c | 3,275$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.34 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 12c | 2,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 15c | 2,375$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.54 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 14c | 2,183$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 15c | 1,800$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.36 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -52%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…d06fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,105$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 14c | 1,033$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.43 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2144…94abbacked Yes | 12c | 999.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 15c | 800$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.18 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes | 12c | 800$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 15c | 693.94$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.19 | 81 | 14.8%12 W · 69 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 627.41$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.02 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e8…ab20backed Yes | 15c | 610.01$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.30per pick | 36cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa733…0e46backed Yes | 13c | 599.96$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…f6f0backed Yes | 19c | 578.95$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 6c | 516.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1167…d1cdbacked Yes | 16c | 375$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 105$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 17c | 104.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…3061backed Yes | 14c | 85.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…ef9fbacked Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2134…0734backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba9…723dbacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20–25%?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10–15%?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by 15–20%?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by 5–10%?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by less than 5%?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by more than 25%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.