Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 5–10%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa10d104c8a67e6a454204cd74cb93a34a3838dcfc22610e1a58258a2cf630171
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $179,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $205,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa878…8335backed No | 0c | 6,131$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed No | 0c | 6,011$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa47b…a496backed Yes | 15c | 5,190$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,415.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +297.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe253…6bffbacked No | 1c | 4,701$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d4…6dddbacked No | 63c | 4,639$2,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,906.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 10c | 3,200$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed Yes | 15c | 2,788$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,362.61 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 21c | 2,488$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,970.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 10c | 2,101$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.76 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +300.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x030e…5652backed Yes | 14c | 1,864$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,603.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 1,776$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 48c | 1,500$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.55 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -52%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 39c | 1,333$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.54 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 1,170$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.45 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed Yes | 15c | 1,093$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…3061backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 18c | 999.98$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.98 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 830.18$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.42 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dff…6238backed Yes | 21c | 721.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…d4debacked Yes | 19c | 514.28$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked Yes | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f9…d241backed Yes | 7c | 459.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,068.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…b576backed Yes | 19c | 454.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +77%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5096…c5b1backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +273.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes | 19c | 400$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 62c | 367.53$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.2 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…f6b5backed Yes | 12c | 300$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55c4…4b34backed Yes | 18c | 278.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 60c | 265$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.46 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb868…ca9bbacked Yes | 16c | 247.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17eb…82bcbacked Yes | 79c | 244$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 18c | 237$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.34 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 46c | 234.05$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.72 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…696bbacked Yes | 19c | 207.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 21cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x840f…41d2backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 23cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 46c | 183.3$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.45 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 60c | 147.91$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.03 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…df88backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 16c | 128$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.52 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43be…bddfbacked Yes | 15c | 110$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed76…d1cebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8d…ed86backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +277.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…7ba1backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304c…7a74backed Yes | 19c | 84.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb1…3020backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2443…354cbacked Yes | 19c | 73.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2134…0734backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa218…94cdbacked Yes | 63c | 67.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…d823backed Yes | 16c | 64.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 80c | 62.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7362…3da0backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd42…d1c3backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18e7…ed30backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +214.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec7…7a26backed Yes | 32c | 50.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4d…1acebacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 40c | 42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ae…df55backed Yes | 64c | 28.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by 5–10%?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10–15%?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by 15–20%?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20–25%?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by less than 5%?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by more than 25%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.