TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7903…df88

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
46
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Bundesliga, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Bundesliga at 53 out of 100; worst Europa Conference League at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$310
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$25
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+356.1%+$534.09
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+669.2%+$133.85
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 11 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-54.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Nov 6, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick62cpaid+68.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+100%+$110
FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+37%+$36.99
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 8, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rockets vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+47.1%+$9.41
Celtics vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+61.3%+$27.58
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 5–10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+488.2%+$122.06
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10–15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$26
All 2 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 6, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tripadvisor (TRIP) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine vs. Iceland end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of March 2 above $410?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SC Recife vs. EC Juventude end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Forsaken (BO5) - Rift Legends Playoffsbacked Forsaken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.