Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Porto vs. FC Arouca end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e604ce40052663dae23a2207565a96f6d9cec1f019010179761b9e4f18ee459
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 13c | 3,773$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.91 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 68c | 1,415$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.33 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82f…9e1cbacked Yes | 51c | 1,181$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 14c | 783.58$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.7 | 94 | 37.2%35 W · 59 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7646…b2a1backed Yes | 7c | 757.14$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 50c | 661.92$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.68 | 641 | 43.4%278 W · 363 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 48c | 520$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 13c | 514.68$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Yes | 77c | 326.38$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…94b8backed Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 36c | 309.72$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.5 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed No | 55c | 284.98$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.24 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 7c | 271.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa0…be2dbacked Yes | 61c | 247.66$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b54…dbd2backed Yes | 7c | 242.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa77d…8ce8backed Yes | 6c | 216.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f01…8bd0backed Yes | 15c | 210$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed No | 78c | 207.17$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…dacebacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +235.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 52c | 191.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 212 | 56.6%120 W · 92 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 12c | 149.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 570 | 19.8%113 W · 457 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a0…da0dbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a6…7a2cbacked Yes | 49c | 139.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.26 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7f…a00dbacked Yes | 11c | 133.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 39c | 131.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.38 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 56c | 111.87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd3…c3a1backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8f…d351backed Yes | 51c | 77.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 47c | 77.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 892 | 58.2%519 W · 373 L | +58.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…cf4fbacked Yes | 15c | 68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 52c | 59.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Yes | 44c | 58.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…e86abacked Yes | 70c | 57.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…df88backed Yes | 59c | 51.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…21a1backed Yes | 57c | 47.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 74c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 43c | 40.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 583 | 20.1%117 W · 466 L | -37.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…36bcbacked No | 56c | 34.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb0…c615backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 39c | 27.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed No | 58c | 23.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked No | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked No | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 55c | 22.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Yes | 66c | 17.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Porto vs. FC Arouca end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Arouca win on 2026-02-27?No won
- Will FC Porto win on 2026-02-27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.