Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will OGC Nice vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb21205dc7f1ad8d8d431e9a8ed150336c5087c6b01b98449454e75870099bfdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 72c | 40,000$28,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,199.98 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Yes | 28c | 27,521$7,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,705.86 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 28c | 10,043$2,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,814.77 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,777$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.1 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 71c | 1,312$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.45 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 68c | 1,124$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.33 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 32c | 700$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 28c | 455.4$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.96 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d8…16dbbacked No | 73c | 388$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…638abacked Yes | 29c | 388$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 21c | 316.03$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff73…9793backed No | 72c | 194$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe81f…e393backed Yes | 29c | 194$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63aa…c5c8backed Yes | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b14…a94dbacked Yes | 9c | 128.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 27c | 103$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0e…4838backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4702…457fbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 27c | 97.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 133 | 27.8%37 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…c36abacked No | 72c | 96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec81…b674backed Yes | 30c | 96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc88f…987abacked No | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fa…44e5backed Yes | 31c | 87.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef7…1e3dbacked Yes | 30c | 83.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…30c9backed No | 73c | 68.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…df88backed Yes | 31c | 65.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…50bcbacked Yes | 30c | 54.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 28c | 53.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…984abacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OGC Nice vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?this page
- Will OGC Nice win on 2025-11-06?No won
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-11-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.