Middle East · resolved market
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7d80fc1ed78c70f2c2e95fab1c34c9bb0c52cbfdbf8f9efd1ba8272262bb953
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,365,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,365,707 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 307 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c50…8100backed No | 0c | 125,371$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…e24abacked No | 13c | 66,691$8,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,820.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked No | 1c | 60,430$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.37 | 62 | 3.2%2 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf15…2aa9backed No | 2c | 41,500$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.5 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked No | 5c | 36,908$2,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,012.16 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 4c | 34,498$1,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,393.71 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 3c | 27,052$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.72 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 10c | 24,815$2,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,427.26 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 1c | 23,450$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.72 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…83d0backed No | 1c | 23,340$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +128.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 1c | 20,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcc…dee9backed No | 2c | 15,075$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.27 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43bf…c53abacked No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4714…0b54backed No | 5c | 12,511$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8a…4521backed No | 0c | 11,400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…1183backed No | 16c | 10,390$1,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,705.29 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…b55fbacked No | 2c | 8,450$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a5…cdbfbacked No | 36c | 8,000$2,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,849.98 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf9…a1c9backed No | 2c | 7,260$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 9c | 6,764$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.98 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…2cfbbacked No | 2c | 6,701$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.06 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +143.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3200…589fbacked No | 2c | 6,247$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 1c | 6,021$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 187 | 38%71 W · 116 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked No | 5c | 6,000$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.99 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 7c | 6,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.99 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec4d…aa3cbacked Yes | 65c | 5,667$3,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.03 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x079e…6da2backed No | 2c | 5,500$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…f0c5backed No | 1c | 5,262$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8651…22cabacked No | 2c | 5,251$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec1f…d325backed No | 2c | 5,148$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…1302backed No | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked No | 1c | 4,868$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 21c | 4,795$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.68 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68f3…fdf8backed No | 2c | 4,631$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…ec26backed No | 4c | 4,422$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.12 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +5.4wins | +0.42per pick | 43cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed No | 1c | 4,202$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd656…f11cbacked No | 2c | 4,137$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 10c | 4,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…6a21backed No | 1c | 3,803$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 8c | 3,747$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.96 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | +13.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb326…f317backed No | 1c | 3,685$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffeb…2dcbbacked No | 2c | 3,671$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.91 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc6…0c69backed No | 2c | 3,624$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa126…7c7fbacked No | 1c | 3,544$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x794d…2b23backed No | 1c | 3,524$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88be…3192backed No | 1c | 3,400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3307…6f4dbacked No | 1c | 3,362$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 1c | 3,324$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…1defbacked No | 1c | 3,177$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 16c | 3,100$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.49 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab2…7ffdbacked No | 2c | 3,034$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…a07bbacked No | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…2fabbacked No | 1c | 2,991$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…517abacked No | 1c | 2,909$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea9…484fbacked No | 2c | 2,793$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf84c…d545backed No | 1c | 2,785$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…0e07backed No | 2c | 2,749$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe531…b349backed No | 1c | 2,698$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…b9c7backed No | 2c | 2,694$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6712…467bbacked No | 1c | 2,580$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…6658backed No | 5c | 2,555$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.94 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…1022backed No | 2c | 2,511$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…0b03backed No | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…530fbacked No | 2c | 2,475$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 14c | 2,367$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.07 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked No | 14c | 2,291$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.97 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 2c | 2,271$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15da…d514backed No | 1c | 2,252$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 3c | 2,171$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 1c | 2,111$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 2,089$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked No | 2c | 2,065$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 1c | 2,057$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4782…f924backed No | 21c | 2,038$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d9…7c7bbacked No | 4c | 2,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeffd…5a86backed Yes | 65c | 2,000$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 6c | 1,947$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.53 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…4570backed Yes | 71c | 1,906$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.63 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x35a1…0951backed No | 1c | 1,900$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…d25fbacked No | 1c | 1,806$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa87…6189backed No | 30c | 1,785$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.94 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b4…7e1abacked Yes | 70c | 1,783$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd878…64c3backed No | 1c | 1,714$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcff9…795abacked No | 1c | 1,712$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 1c | 1,637$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5e…a628backed No | 4c | 1,550$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…0126backed Yes | 65c | 1,549$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.25 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…30d6backed No | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe484…0779backed No | 6c | 1,495$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a17…1b46backed No | 1c | 1,449$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 1,440$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.42 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba70…a2eabacked No | 14c | 1,426$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b7…4d8ebacked No | 3c | 1,398$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e86…746ebacked No | 1c | 1,396$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2357…b74dbacked No | 10c | 1,369$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1571…76e8backed No | 2c | 1,276$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…b771backed No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa1…3807backed No | 2c | 1,209$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 3c | 1,209$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e6…56b6backed No | 15c | 1,190$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.29 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026?this page
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.