Middle East · resolved market
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dbe370933194e449ebec13b96fd1f5d2fde064c880d6b8db100f2730c50357c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,204,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,324,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,204,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 222 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4f6…9e9fbacked No | 0c | 38,458$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6df…acc8backed No | 0c | 36,450$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed No | 5c | 22,222$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.09 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf918…f606backed No | 0c | 21,449$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e2…b26cbacked No | 1c | 18,559$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 4c | 17,111$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.86 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…612abacked No | 7c | 13,844$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.45 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 4c | 13,521$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.94 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5979…5258backed No | 0c | 13,442$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x609c…765bbacked No | 2c | 13,311$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 13,054$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 0c | 12,671$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3f…54cdbacked No | 0c | 12,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 1c | 11,704$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.05 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…1f0fbacked No | 1c | 11,495$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb565…0921backed No | 0c | 11,210$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b7…f4e1backed No | 1c | 11,172$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a0…9884backed No | 1c | 10,294$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.53 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…8ebcbacked No | 2c | 10,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7a…c9e7backed No | 1c | 8,875$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1462…3210backed No | 0c | 8,456$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…3d56backed No | 17c | 7,813$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +244.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf762…a8e6backed No | 1c | 7,523$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.76 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked No | 11c | 7,507$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.41 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3f…7ac0backed No | 1c | 6,969$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…7269backed No | 1c | 6,667$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa87…6189backed No | 8c | 6,582$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a6…6e3fbacked No | 1c | 6,110$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 17c | 6,026$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.96 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8556…fad9backed No | 0c | 6,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…bfd6backed No | 1c | 6,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 5c | 6,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 5,782$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.7 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27e4…ff39backed No | 1c | 5,548$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 3c | 5,530$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.41 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567d…68bfbacked No | 2c | 5,263$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8805…6812backed No | 1c | 5,120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2305…37c7backed No | 0c | 5,100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0451…db79backed No | 4c | 5,008$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 1c | 5,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185c…3283backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fa…e37cbacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc206…6d57backed No | 1c | 4,460$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef8…ac18backed No | 1c | 4,444$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf26d…193ebacked No | 0c | 4,432$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…3248backed No | 2c | 4,326$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.74 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d54…2687backed No | 0c | 4,325$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed No | 1c | 4,300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 130 | 22.3%29 W · 101 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c8…29edbacked No | 0c | 4,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 3,916$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb8…9d7bbacked No | 1c | 3,845$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1520…e8c5backed No | 1c | 3,758$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe12f…8ffebacked No | 1c | 3,658$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd26…f65abacked No | 1c | 3,631$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a33…5792backed No | 1c | 3,577$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 2c | 3,291$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x897c…fe37backed No | 0c | 3,252$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…9880backed No | 1c | 3,165$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea8…53dabacked No | 1c | 2,945$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed No | 1c | 2,793$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…a7a3backed No | 24c | 2,715$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d89…3a9ebacked No | 0c | 2,611$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…f4d9backed No | 0c | 2,501$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…6495backed No | 1c | 2,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked No | 2c | 2,466$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…b5cebacked No | 1c | 2,444$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…fe83backed No | 1c | 2,319$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba64…17f0backed No | 1c | 2,296$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked No | 1c | 2,257$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 94 | 10.6%10 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15da…d514backed No | 1c | 2,201$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a20…ab28backed No | 1c | 2,143$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c4…78c6backed No | 1c | 2,100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9755…6fd3backed No | 1c | 1,997$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed No | 1c | 1,875$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…f298backed No | 1c | 1,859$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 1,750$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2263…4e26backed No | 1c | 1,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 4c | 1,664$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 14c | 1,625$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.88 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…d56cbacked No | 2c | 1,518$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…a9febacked No | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked No | 6c | 1,500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84a…b404backed No | 1c | 1,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…11fabacked No | 1c | 1,402$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7a…e6fabacked No | 1c | 1,400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked No | 15c | 1,381$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.1 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…cc8abacked No | 1c | 1,341$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed No | 2c | 1,266$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f82…b937backed No | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x028b…06bcbacked No | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…cadbbacked No | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…9ff2backed No | 2c | 1,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 17cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6613…ae99backed No | 1c | 1,250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2524…93d3backed No | 1c | 1,205$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8a…e8d9backed No | 1c | 1,201$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked No | 14c | 1,169$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.88 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 17c | 1,167$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x612a…177dbacked No | 2c | 1,114$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…45cebacked No | 6c | 1,100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1701…b982backed No | 1c | 1,082$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026?this page
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.