Middle East · resolved market
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5500fe511dbffe4eb287596a896df9df908233ab1bc6d5029443b634d91e126
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,398,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,398,361 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28a0…9884backed No | 0c | 98,687$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.23 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e46…9873backed No | 1c | 92,700$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 0c | 62,311$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.62 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffeb…2dcbbacked No | 0c | 54,077$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.95 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed No | 0c | 49,999$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 98 | 25.5%25 W · 73 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed No | 8c | 33,363$2,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,668.72 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 26,320$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 0c | 24,588$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa126…7c7fbacked No | 0c | 23,732$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf603…82f1backed No | 0c | 17,649$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 0c | 15,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f44…7b15backed No | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…a3b4backed No | 0c | 13,333$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15da…d514backed No | 0c | 13,263$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa89f…2bcbbacked No | 0c | 12,960$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x734f…c118backed No | 0c | 12,340$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8a…4521backed No | 1c | 12,100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 3c | 12,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 4c | 11,613$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.54 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x485f…8edfbacked No | 0c | 11,568$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 16c | 11,006$1,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,814.81 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xf167…0e4dbacked No | 0c | 11,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed No | 1c | 10,799$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…612abacked No | 6c | 10,658$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.11 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…e040backed No | 0c | 10,244$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8651…22cabacked No | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 2c | 9,770$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.84 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…1183backed No | 15c | 9,760$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,503.87 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…d5f8backed No | 0c | 8,840$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf9…a1c9backed No | 0c | 8,780$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 5c | 7,950$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.86 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b5…b7acbacked No | 0c | 7,806$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…6658backed No | 2c | 7,116$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.7 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5415…4180backed No | 0c | 6,769$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ba…611ebacked No | 2c | 6,481$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked No | 11c | 5,469$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.38 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x790e…7c32backed No | 0c | 5,230$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff9…fa6abacked No | 0c | 5,118$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 0c | 5,074$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf88a…399fbacked No | 1c | 4,924$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7f…ca90backed No | 0c | 4,591$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed No | 0c | 4,589$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 16cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fee…13e6backed No | 0c | 4,480$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…a88cbacked No | 0c | 4,201$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa7…e133backed No | 0c | 4,083$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked No | 13c | 4,000$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.82 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01d8…5d63backed No | 0c | 3,750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65aa…a6b5backed No | 0c | 3,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…fb52backed No | 0c | 3,377$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 3c | 3,302$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.96 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a44…4690backed No | 0c | 3,124$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 3,117$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.4 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 22c | 2,643$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.95 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc625…461abacked No | 1c | 2,628$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ba…4372backed Yes | 79c | 2,545$2,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.96 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594a…906ebacked No | 2c | 2,529$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b7…4d8ebacked No | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f8…cf15backed No | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…ea6fbacked No | 9c | 2,498$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe65a…7d2abacked No | 0c | 2,478$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…efc4backed No | 0c | 2,452$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…b9c7backed No | 1c | 2,415$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6a…3568backed No | 0c | 2,272$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 15c | 2,237$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.73 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…9cfbbacked No | 2c | 2,083$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…9410backed No | 1c | 1,900$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed6…87b7backed No | 1c | 1,897$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…6eedbacked No | 1c | 1,896$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -84%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa87…6189backed No | 21c | 1,866$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd914…e3fdbacked No | 1c | 1,781$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54de…67b7backed No | 1c | 1,778$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Yes | 80c | 1,667$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.31 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked No | 2c | 1,608$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed Yes | 70c | 1,446$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.71 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…0566backed No | 1c | 1,385$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98e…da6fbacked No | 2c | 1,317$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…662dbacked No | 1c | 1,300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…9c23backed Yes | 79c | 1,259$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.17 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba74…7c33backed No | 2c | 1,250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 5c | 1,175$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea9…484fbacked No | 1c | 1,063$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e32…3408backed Yes | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd543…c181backed No | 18c | 999.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x327e…adb3backed No | 11c | 907.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 10c | 807.04$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.04 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…dc6fbacked No | 2c | 726.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -87%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 15c | 722.96$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.68 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…f341backed Yes | 76c | 654.51$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.51 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x319d…2538backed Yes | 79c | 632.91$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.91 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b0…96cfbacked No | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…325fbacked No | 3c | 593.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +151.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…8ebcbacked No | 10c | 584.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27e4…ff39backed No | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed Yes | 69c | 546$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.1 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7863…96bdbacked No | 3c | 528.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed Yes | 69c | 523$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.13 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd101…696abacked No | 3c | 512$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cc…70babacked No | 2c | 508.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?this page
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.