Middle East · resolved market
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba580e15cb600f9fb9a70c7a04a239e4df64a1d5c13780a5192525e4d1c71eec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,110,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,215,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,110,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 309 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28a0…9884backed No | 2c | 61,681$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.63 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 58,819$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.82 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc99…23f7backed No | 1c | 58,067$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.22 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15da…d514backed No | 0c | 51,070$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09dc…e583backed No | 0c | 44,222$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffeb…717bbacked No | 0c | 42,619$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11dd…ffd4backed No | 0c | 40,476$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0e…06f9backed No | 1c | 36,609$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0594…e07cbacked No | 0c | 33,039$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 12cpaid | +283.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb06…250abacked No | 3c | 30,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa94e…24e0backed No | 9c | 30,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,699.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfae9…974cbacked No | 1c | 29,818$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…612abacked No | 5c | 27,478$1,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,371.59 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd6…8d7fbacked No | 0c | 24,947$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd8…f4bbbacked No | 0c | 24,500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0e…33afbacked No | 1c | 23,562$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6975…44e1backed No | 0c | 23,533$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…d510backed No | 3c | 21,450$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.69 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ed…7054backed No | 2c | 18,901$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 2c | 18,180$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.41 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aec…9ecdbacked No | 3c | 17,848$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 2c | 16,749$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.19 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…a9febacked No | 1c | 16,500$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ba…50dbbacked No | 2c | 13,396$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 2c | 13,000$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc77f…1704backed No | 3c | 12,253$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…45cebacked No | 0c | 11,820$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa87…6189backed No | 2c | 10,965$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b58…94efbacked No | 2c | 10,145$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc36f…f5a9backed No | 2c | 9,637$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ee…9c50backed No | 3c | 9,370$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…31ecbacked No | 1c | 8,710$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5c…a5debacked No | 7c | 8,658$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b71…26d5backed No | 0c | 8,375$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…14f0backed No | 1c | 8,022$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 5c | 8,012$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.65 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…e967backed No | 2c | 7,880$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed No | 9c | 7,647$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.15 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…a104backed No | 3c | 6,912$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a2…ff4cbacked No | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked No | 2c | 6,371$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.48 | 94 | 10.6%10 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…1ec9backed No | 1c | 6,330$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…87cbbacked No | 2c | 6,244$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 5,821$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.36 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b17…eab2backed No | 0c | 5,737$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 3c | 5,705$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.56 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd32…5079backed No | 2c | 5,363$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa203…188ebacked No | 0c | 5,335$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb751…c1a2backed No | 1c | 5,328$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a04…5bd4backed No | 0c | 5,286$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf04a…2851backed No | 2c | 5,134$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7460…9ecabacked No | 2c | 5,025$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked No | 7c | 5,006$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.9 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x524e…fe92backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a62…f60dbacked No | 4c | 4,992$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed No | 2c | 4,976$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e4…c4c0backed No | 3c | 4,911$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 12c | 4,777$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.47 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 4c | 4,546$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.62 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83b…459ebacked No | 1c | 4,545$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fa…4a72backed No | 1c | 4,406$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8472…da0ebacked No | 1c | 4,395$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…bfbabacked No | 2c | 4,391$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…16c1backed No | 1c | 4,184$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d56…5822backed No | 2c | 4,165$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…5560backed No | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2274…211dbacked No | 0c | 3,907$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 3c | 3,906$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.2 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c88…9f1bbacked No | 3c | 3,893$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6224…7440backed No | 3c | 3,857$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf78…bb41backed No | 1c | 3,833$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…1848backed No | 2c | 3,750$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca7…5aa3backed No | 1c | 3,546$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f95…4b35backed No | 3c | 3,458$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 2c | 3,443$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.62 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…a7a3backed No | 9c | 3,425$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.91 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81ff…5626backed No | 1c | 3,423$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…4c47backed No | 1c | 3,240$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 6c | 3,200$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +10.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc7…9edebacked No | 2c | 3,100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c0…639ebacked No | 2c | 3,009$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…c48ebacked No | 2c | 3,002$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x772e…1f69backed No | 1c | 2,976$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2305…37c7backed No | 1c | 2,934$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d17…c3dabacked No | 2c | 2,821$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0076…60d8backed No | 2c | 2,762$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdd…c202backed No | 2c | 2,747$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f60…0a24backed No | 1c | 2,599$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf9…a1c9backed No | 13c | 2,573$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea1c…436fbacked No | 3c | 2,562$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…e276backed No | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked No | 1c | 2,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…c392backed No | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf365…2a08backed No | 3c | 2,452$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffeb…2dcbbacked No | 2c | 2,422$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe12f…8ffebacked No | 2c | 2,379$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cde…5724backed No | 2c | 2,334$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 3c | 2,244$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…a290backed No | 10c | 2,184$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.96 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026?this page
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.