Middle East · resolved market
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0f7f38de53e4ed1f1a33198491c848f90ac2f41e9086ffef58c64ff3eb63592
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,127,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,649,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,127,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 271 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41f0…4568backed No | 0c | 101,049$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fac…fa66backed No | 0c | 68,351$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 6c | 54,462$3,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,318.69 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c56…6d8bbacked No | 0c | 42,453$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…08bdbacked No | 0c | 34,829$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x609c…765bbacked No | 1c | 34,359$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…2d48backed No | 0c | 27,448$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15da…d514backed No | 1c | 22,585$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 3c | 21,757$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.97 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb085…ed58backed No | 5c | 21,200$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x734f…c118backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…419abacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e18…02bcbacked No | 0c | 19,910$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 15,597$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.09 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 1c | 15,350$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.99 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a6…6e3fbacked No | 0c | 15,194$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…ed6dbacked No | 1c | 14,994$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 1cpaid | +2,534.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb06…250abacked No | 6c | 14,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 2c | 13,964$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.31 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +10.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1701…b982backed No | 0c | 12,750$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a0…9884backed No | 1c | 12,282$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.79 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…dda7backed No | 1c | 12,050$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5e…5778backed No | 1c | 11,451$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…b5cebacked No | 1c | 11,064$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0451…db79backed No | 1c | 10,906$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…612abacked No | 8c | 9,726$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.83 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a1…2f95backed No | 1c | 9,190$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 10c | 8,512$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.25 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…8ebcbacked No | 1c | 8,298$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe792…80bcbacked No | 1c | 7,952$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf918…f606backed No | 1c | 7,409$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7e…55c9backed No | 1c | 7,143$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f8…a41abacked No | 1c | 6,910$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 7c | 6,883$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.77 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa553…722fbacked No | 1c | 6,744$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…1891backed No | 0c | 6,625$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffeb…2dcbbacked No | 1c | 6,569$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa87…6189backed No | 5c | 6,477$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…aa54backed No | 1c | 6,389$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked No | 8c | 6,004$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.54 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 5,951$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.62 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1580…b62ebacked No | 1c | 5,853$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e9…85b9backed No | 0c | 5,807$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 5c | 5,655$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.82 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…c553backed No | 1c | 5,545$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 3c | 5,345$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.62 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…a61fbacked No | 1c | 5,178$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…a7a3backed No | 14c | 5,127$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.07 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc52c…6732backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…a9febacked No | 1c | 5,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb06…11e3backed No | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c88…9f1bbacked No | 1c | 4,907$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea8…53dabacked No | 1c | 4,778$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…6611backed No | 1c | 4,444$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked No | 2c | 4,350$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.25 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…3e2abacked No | 1c | 4,240$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…09d7backed No | 1c | 4,200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c3…2e6fbacked No | 1c | 4,197$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 3c | 4,002$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.38 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbc…f2e9backed No | 1c | 4,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d7…fe9dbacked No | 1c | 3,957$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…5bfebacked No | 1c | 3,928$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0a…3494backed No | 1c | 3,750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed No | 1c | 3,664$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c95…a2dbbacked No | 0c | 3,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…bfbabacked No | 6c | 3,454$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…f63abacked No | 15c | 3,366$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc25e…e1b7backed No | 0c | 3,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…d56cbacked No | 1c | 3,125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb44…8b8fbacked No | 1c | 3,035$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…53b9backed No | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…c6babacked No | 1c | 2,940$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b09…95b9backed No | 1c | 2,927$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa194…e0eebacked No | 1c | 2,850$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaece…87f3backed No | 14c | 2,791$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.17 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…9ff2backed No | 1c | 2,778$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 17cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed No | 1c | 2,775$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 130 | 22.3%29 W · 101 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b4…c4e6backed No | 1c | 2,611$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…3d56backed No | 12c | 2,567$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +244.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8a…e8d9backed No | 0c | 2,556$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked No | 2c | 2,517$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 94 | 10.6%10 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 1c | 2,500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed No | 19c | 2,500$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb28b…3d9bbacked No | 1c | 2,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6612…3d87backed No | 8c | 2,426$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe12f…8ffebacked No | 1c | 2,418$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…4c47backed No | 1c | 2,376$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c8…4772backed No | 1c | 2,375$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c0…917fbacked No | 1c | 2,352$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…91dabacked No | 1c | 2,259$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00bc…5c73backed No | 1c | 2,250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x199e…e3acbacked No | 1c | 2,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2524…93d3backed No | 1c | 2,220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…0ef6backed No | 1c | 2,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…f937backed No | 1c | 2,161$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc663…bd70backed No | 1c | 2,143$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0698…a4d6backed No | 1c | 2,126$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c0…98e0backed No | 1c | 2,122$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…16c1backed No | 1c | 2,111$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3c…487ebacked No | 1c | 2,024$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026?this page
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.