Middle East · resolved market
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71aac973c13d855cb73b412f96b076cdc759864742b9e62c4600736e7e605546
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,310,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,310,376 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98a7…df9ebacked No | 0c | 97,519$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed No | 12c | 57,547$6,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,905.65 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd878…64c3backed No | 0c | 41,380$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 0c | 30,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 2c | 25,567$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.69 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 2c | 22,800$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.2 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 0c | 22,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc625…461abacked No | 0c | 19,294$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed66…936cbacked No | 0c | 18,364$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…f0c5backed No | 0c | 15,663$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 0c | 15,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…2cfbbacked No | 0c | 13,273$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +143.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed No | 1c | 13,272$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17db…03aabacked No | 0c | 12,530$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccb…214abacked No | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15da…d514backed No | 0c | 10,333$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec1f…d325backed No | 1c | 10,141$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.41 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa7…e133backed No | 0c | 10,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…1183backed No | 23c | 10,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,299.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 5c | 9,513$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.58 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…a37cbacked No | 2c | 7,841$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.82 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02db…b1e4backed No | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a89…86a1backed No | 0c | 7,402$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 7,200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…e24abacked No | 16c | 6,872$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 13c | 6,666$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.58 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20fe…f411backed Yes | 77c | 6,494$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.51 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 64cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 3c | 6,458$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.55 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 6c | 6,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked No | 12c | 6,000$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.33 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8651…22cabacked No | 1c | 5,917$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…1302backed No | 2c | 5,883$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8a…4521backed No | 1c | 5,700$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 1c | 5,489$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…77e1backed Yes | 79c | 5,086$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…6a21backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf15…2aa9backed No | 1c | 5,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf9…a1c9backed No | 1c | 4,961$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x485f…8edfbacked No | 1c | 4,598$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7f…ca90backed No | 0c | 4,455$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…6658backed No | 3c | 4,326$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.79 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb326…f317backed No | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…30d6backed No | 1c | 4,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 9c | 3,942$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.61 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x597d…b97dbacked No | 1c | 3,745$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…612abacked No | 14c | 3,389$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.93 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 21c | 3,350$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.88 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 2c | 3,311$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b0…70a4backed No | 1c | 3,294$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0530…1eecbacked No | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a6…6e3fbacked No | 2c | 2,926$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked No | 13c | 2,727$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.7 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed No | 1c | 2,714$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 16cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 2c | 2,656$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 1c | 2,504$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 19c | 2,437$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.02 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…b9c7backed No | 1c | 2,088$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e32…3408backed Yes | 68c | 2,000$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.45 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 1,977$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5415…4180backed No | 1c | 1,970$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed Yes | 79c | 1,681$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.36 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…9cfbbacked No | 3c | 1,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…4570backed Yes | 77c | 1,652$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.24 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…662dbacked No | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…3105backed No | 1c | 1,489$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d8…5d63backed No | 1c | 1,429$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked No | 2c | 1,380$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…9c23backed Yes | 75c | 1,337$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.21 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7af…c8bdbacked No | 2c | 1,273$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…09debacked Yes | 45c | 1,265$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dad…f750backed No | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffeb…2dcbbacked No | 4c | 1,249$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…a88cbacked No | 1c | 1,156$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a44…4690backed No | 1c | 1,008$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d2…6698backed No | 55c | 1,006$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…0b03backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 138 | 29%40 W · 98 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x689d…66e8backed No | 1c | 999.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b6…dfc1backed No | 1c | 942.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…3ad0backed No | 2c | 869.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b04…375cbacked No | 1c | 780.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb156…c2f2backed No | 4c | 775$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 3c | 700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 2c | 694.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594a…906ebacked No | 6c | 611.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked Yes | 61c | 609$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.51 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 17c | 548.68$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.31 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed No | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…deaebacked No | 39c | 489$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe12f…8ffebacked No | 3c | 468.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3857…6605backed No | 3c | 443.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7863…96bdbacked No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 77c | 399.99$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc7…7349backed No | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27e4…ff39backed No | 14c | 357.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b0…96cfbacked No | 4c | 333.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b72…5b75backed No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b90…4ebabacked No | 10c | 299.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 30c | 292.17$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.47 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026?this page
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.