Middle East · resolved market
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7e7318fa2cc1f8f3b78447ac502635f99e04058581504d4154dba7f405dab8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $764,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $764,736 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 51,100$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…2440backed No | 0c | 49,980$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -55%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed No | 6c | 33,333$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.98 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc625…461abacked No | 0c | 32,805$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 0c | 31,852$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.52 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 5c | 23,535$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.34 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a44…4690backed No | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8a…4521backed No | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb565…0921backed No | 0c | 16,160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 2c | 16,000$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x734f…c118backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe409…97dfbacked No | 0c | 14,875$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66dc…c375backed No | 0c | 12,230$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb60…3ce8backed No | 1c | 11,285$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 3c | 11,031$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.33 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67f8…cf15backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3980…57c3backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…1183backed No | 12c | 8,667$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.23 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…d706backed No | 0c | 7,200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 0c | 6,307$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 7c | 6,232$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.91 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…16f7backed No | 0c | 5,875$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9111…6d82backed No | 0c | 5,173$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…c5c4backed No | 0c | 5,063$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked No | 4c | 5,006$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.75 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 4,896$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.92 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…3248backed No | 1c | 4,610$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…6658backed No | 1c | 4,444$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…612abacked No | 6c | 3,856$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.96 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…ea6fbacked No | 6c | 3,800$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b5…b7acbacked No | 1c | 3,689$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked No | 1c | 3,223$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 2c | 2,995$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.3 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 2,800$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8f…963bbacked No | 1c | 2,625$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594a…906ebacked No | 2c | 2,600$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed No | 17c | 2,538$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.38 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…9cfbbacked No | 2c | 2,492$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba74…7c33backed No | 2c | 2,188$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98e…da6fbacked No | 2c | 2,169$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…134dbacked No | 0c | 2,010$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f82…2d8bbacked No | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…4570backed Yes | 77c | 1,994$1,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.49 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 9c | 1,986$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.43 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0451…db79backed No | 13c | 1,972$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 15c | 1,957$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.61 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa87…6189backed No | 17c | 1,818$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed No | 39c | 1,645$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.27 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…095bbacked No | 2c | 1,585$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 10cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7a…089dbacked No | 34c | 1,480$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567d…68bfbacked No | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5efd…e08ebacked No | 7c | 1,421$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.01 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…5945backed No | 8c | 1,417$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.16 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…662dbacked No | 1c | 1,300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 2c | 1,263$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe31f…cc94backed No | 2c | 1,261$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b9…e974backed No | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 21c | 1,193$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.29 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b0…96cfbacked No | 2c | 1,188$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed Yes | 73c | 1,079$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.71 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 8c | 1,054$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.34 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed No | 2c | 1,002$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6a…5522backed No | 1c | 1,001$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8a…e62abacked Yes | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd543…c181backed No | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed No | 5c | 999.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 14cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…dc6fbacked No | 1c | 996.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -87%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b4…6beabacked No | 14c | 959.38$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.65 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed Yes | 70c | 911.95$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.28 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 23c | 902.93$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.4 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 850.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 805.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…54d8backed No | 2c | 805$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 5c | 799.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7863…96bdbacked No | 3c | 796.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 9c | 788.23$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 15c | 724.87$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.79 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…0a03backed No | 16c | 638.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27e4…ff39backed No | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b4…8467backed No | 2c | 604.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed No | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 580.61$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 17c | 580$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 59c | 573$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.93 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2840…8cffbacked No | 6c | 550$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…de47backed No | 10c | 501.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cc…70babacked No | 2c | 501.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…3c2dbacked No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcc…d1d4backed No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac87…ae28backed No | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x830a…222dbacked Yes | 65c | 486.86$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.73 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde5d…6732backed No | 22c | 452.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 23c | 408.24$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.7 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 10c | 384.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 242 | 24.4%59 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked No | 6c | 374.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 4c | 358.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c5…6f9cbacked No | 18c | 340.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebe…4a92backed No | 8c | 337.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 5c | 329.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026?this page
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.