Middle East · resolved market
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3205072a9cd4b1f753af22c124b6bce288bf8363797cb4d47d842c4c4a1afc3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,156,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,156,594 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed No | 6c | 77,777$4,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,777.72 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a0…9884backed No | 0c | 75,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 0c | 42,388$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.93 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…c5c4backed No | 0c | 38,667$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…26babacked No | 0c | 29,153$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 2c | 23,931$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.19 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…20b0backed No | 0c | 18,833$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 2c | 16,624$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.21 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…612abacked No | 5c | 15,584$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.52 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x566d…2f1dbacked No | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb241…8f91backed No | 0c | 12,929$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…6658backed No | 0c | 12,870$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…9cfbbacked No | 1c | 12,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked No | 1c | 12,500$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 12,428$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 2c | 12,242$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.92 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…6501backed No | 0c | 11,905$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4376…333cbacked No | 2c | 11,903$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…1183backed No | 5c | 11,849$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a6…6e3fbacked No | 1c | 11,263$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db9…202ebacked No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…d706backed No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1728…3820backed No | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4dd…c8febacked No | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…095bbacked No | 1c | 8,608$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 10cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31d…68d1backed No | 1c | 7,933$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…a45fbacked No | 0c | 6,940$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 6c | 6,413$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.91 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 6,290$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.82 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…3248backed No | 2c | 6,184$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.06 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 10c | 5,426$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.52 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64cb…e464backed No | 0c | 5,358$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb48e…d489backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7731…ab5ebacked No | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98e…da6fbacked No | 1c | 5,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81f…e36fbacked No | 2c | 4,738$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 6cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fe…5db9backed No | 0c | 4,725$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked No | 15c | 4,389$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.16 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b5…b7acbacked No | 1c | 4,228$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed No | 13c | 4,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 2c | 3,750$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.1 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe65a…7d2abacked No | 0c | 3,667$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…8a70backed No | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253a…1452backed No | 1c | 2,870$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b0…96cfbacked No | 1c | 2,444$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa87…6189backed No | 17c | 2,339$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0451…db79backed No | 9c | 2,278$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…8af2backed No | 12c | 2,120$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fc…a467backed No | 1c | 2,092$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa68f…5f55backed No | 1c | 2,054$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…dc6fbacked No | 1c | 2,041$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -87%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked No | 2c | 2,011$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf156…4dc3backed No | 6c | 1,731$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +326.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…54d8backed No | 1c | 1,611$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf762…a8e6backed No | 6c | 1,546$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5efd…e08ebacked No | 3c | 1,516$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 20c | 1,500$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed No | 1c | 1,394$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27e4…ff39backed No | 4c | 1,371$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed Yes | 79c | 1,250$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.25 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cc…70babacked No | 1c | 1,184$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…74ebbacked Yes | 68c | 1,166$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.12 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 10c | 1,157$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.46 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc663…bd70backed No | 4c | 1,133$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…f21fbacked No | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…95d2backed No | 1c | 1,050$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…f0c5backed No | 4c | 1,026$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed No | 3c | 999.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 14cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…7269backed No | 4c | 978.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7863…96bdbacked No | 2c | 882.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc625…461abacked No | 1c | 880.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567d…68bfbacked No | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…d56cbacked No | 7c | 771.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…6bb1backed No | 5c | 750$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c88…9f1bbacked No | 6c | 741.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58fe…a8c5backed No | 32c | 735$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67b…c941backed Yes | 79c | 732$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.33 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5979…5258backed No | 2c | 710.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9603…bbd9backed No | 8c | 639.78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 16c | 630.86$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ac…3c2abacked No | 4c | 615$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b90…4ebabacked No | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 592.05$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.84 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 12c | 580$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7a…e6fabacked No | 6c | 566.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 76c | 555.19$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.25 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…b4eebacked No | 32c | 544$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.08 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked No | 18c | 519.58$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.52 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed No | 24c | 499.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 4c | 493.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…57afbacked No | 15c | 478.6$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x388b…1343backed No | 6c | 465.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.25per pick | 17cpaid | +215.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…ea6fbacked No | 4c | 400.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfa…6fa5backed No | 12c | 395.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…52f6backed Yes | 76c | 394.91$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.91 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa312…8814backed No | 6c | 392.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ed…dda6backed No | 4c | 383.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…f298backed No | 4c | 360.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…7b1fbacked No | 33c | 345.57$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026?this page
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.