Middle East · resolved market
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaffffdcf1ac14c2b3d6888f5efc76c0ea1aa5db4891588cc6e99f6e37e938acb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,546,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,551,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,546,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 345 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0db5…f3aabacked No | 0c | 70,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 4c | 53,169$2,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,240.53 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +10.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…612abacked No | 1c | 46,204$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.19 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27c9…56f6backed No | 0c | 36,499$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2cb…107fbacked No | 3c | 34,432$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 3c | 33,000$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…268abacked No | 2c | 29,688$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…70cfbacked No | 3c | 28,588$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c88…9f1bbacked No | 0c | 27,544$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91a0…1e2fbacked No | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc01b…7718backed No | 5c | 23,171$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 2c | 21,245$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.59 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 3c | 19,299$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.56 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1e…d356backed No | 4c | 15,238$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…baafbacked No | 5c | 15,151$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.52 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…a7a3backed No | 3c | 15,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.88 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaece…87f3backed No | 3c | 13,026$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.91 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…4216backed No | 0c | 12,120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd8…f0f7backed No | 1c | 11,233$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97a0…da35backed No | 1c | 10,505$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c7…aaacbacked No | 3c | 10,272$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 5c | 10,096$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5c…a5debacked No | 6c | 9,000$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.23 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7724…af9ebacked No | 3c | 7,813$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffeb…2dcbbacked No | 2c | 7,751$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.38 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…55d1backed No | 0c | 6,840$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked No | 7c | 6,724$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.49 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…f7e1backed No | 5c | 6,376$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7b…ec49backed No | 0c | 6,181$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd043…50c8backed No | 6c | 6,051$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a4…5214backed No | 3c | 5,957$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 3c | 5,942$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.8 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…7555backed No | 1c | 5,900$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x393c…2df7backed No | 3c | 5,882$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b00…c7c1backed No | 3c | 5,864$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b0…5aaabacked No | 3c | 5,703$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.87 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed No | 5c | 5,685$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.94 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 5c | 5,570$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.18 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 3c | 5,501$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.72 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…6d14backed No | 0c | 5,488$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x517f…1e0abacked No | 6c | 5,142$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc26…cae1backed No | 0c | 5,021$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad1d…47c3backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…f6fcbacked No | 5c | 4,918$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.05 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f6…dd4fbacked No | 3c | 4,857$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…5bfebacked No | 5c | 4,791$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…4298backed No | 2c | 4,769$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe470…1cd0backed No | 1c | 4,672$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…2c8fbacked No | 5c | 4,648$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c4…3b0ebacked No | 1c | 4,628$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea7d…9045backed No | 1c | 4,223$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0e…1435backed No | 0c | 4,170$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf05…291bbacked No | 5c | 4,109$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2df…6771backed No | 7c | 4,050$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75be…9a9ebacked No | 5c | 4,005$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.21 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 3c | 4,000$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86b…1bc7backed No | 0c | 4,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked No | 3c | 3,975$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.54 | 94 | 10.6%10 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 4c | 3,964$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.52 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 1c | 3,874$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 3,749$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x794c…5be9backed No | 3c | 3,660$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x330a…975bbacked No | 3c | 3,622$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ff…b453backed No | 4c | 3,611$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…7922backed No | 7c | 3,576$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d0…e5dbbacked No | 3c | 3,555$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf552…8a6bbacked No | 3c | 3,539$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 3c | 3,534$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.92 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…7b1fbacked No | 3c | 3,460$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…5084backed No | 6c | 3,432$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54cd…db0dbacked No | 3c | 3,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed No | 3c | 3,325$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 3,248$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.69 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…a290backed No | 5c | 3,216$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad47…9d82backed No | 7c | 3,135$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…1ec9backed No | 2c | 3,038$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…522ebacked No | 0c | 3,031$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked No | 3c | 3,016$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcb…36c9backed No | 3c | 2,989$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7252…9e6dbacked No | 4c | 2,965$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.29 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b31…bac4backed No | 4c | 2,878$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.56 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -7.1wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2aea…d332backed No | 0c | 2,861$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 6c | 2,840$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.36 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked No | 3c | 2,800$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…b131backed No | 2c | 2,753$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eea…c324backed No | 1c | 2,683$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dd…5625backed No | 6c | 2,619$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…c549backed No | 4c | 2,513$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked No | 5c | 2,500$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…781abacked No | 0c | 2,498$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5859…38cbbacked No | 5c | 2,481$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…9d2ebacked No | 5c | 2,281$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.42 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3379…f0b4backed No | 5c | 2,229$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e4…a26bbacked No | 7c | 2,194$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3c…487ebacked No | 2c | 2,174$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7168…e537backed No | 7c | 2,168$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1aa…ccecbacked No | 4c | 2,122$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0b…183fbacked No | 5c | 2,048$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4863…121fbacked No | 5c | 2,041$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…b7dabacked No | 2c | 2,029$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?this page
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.