Middle East · resolved market
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc698b84223698775c00b03a5d160af984a4217ae3cb63787ab245bf8f1d4dc59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,498,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,498,250 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed No | 5c | 77,777$3,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,869.02 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a0…9884backed No | 0c | 54,719$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.57 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4dd…c8febacked No | 0c | 39,826$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…1d21backed No | 0c | 27,408$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 1c | 22,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc625…461abacked No | 0c | 20,305$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f49…a8dfbacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15da…d514backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3b…188bbacked No | 1c | 19,914$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…612abacked No | 3c | 17,176$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.81 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7863…96bdbacked No | 0c | 15,209$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb085…ed58backed No | 3c | 14,924$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.91 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24b6…56edbacked No | 0c | 14,186$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe36b…4313backed No | 0c | 13,950$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 1c | 13,138$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…8af2backed No | 9c | 12,914$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…095bbacked No | 0c | 11,860$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 10cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…54d8backed No | 0c | 10,978$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c13…3c09backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 3c | 9,800$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +10.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 1c | 9,525$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.53 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…8b1cbacked No | 0c | 9,256$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 0c | 9,118$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 8,386$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 5c | 8,359$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.05 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385b…f046backed No | 0c | 8,246$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 7,348$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.72 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed No | 1c | 6,438$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 130 | 22.3%29 W · 101 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed No | 1c | 6,094$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked No | 13c | 6,053$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.86 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x949a…2cd9backed No | 0c | 5,789$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f9…a3c5backed No | 0c | 5,450$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b4…9cf8backed No | 2c | 5,373$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e8…b994backed No | 4c | 5,267$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7b…0fa5backed No | 0c | 5,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b5…b7acbacked No | 0c | 5,018$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e57…be4fbacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked No | 1c | 5,000$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…6828backed No | 0c | 4,750$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf762…a8e6backed No | 2c | 4,638$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31d…68d1backed No | 1c | 4,524$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa87…6189backed No | 11c | 4,432$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0451…db79backed No | 5c | 4,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…a7a3backed No | 27c | 3,741$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.52 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2479…fb6fbacked No | 2c | 3,724$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5979…5258backed No | 1c | 3,668$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5b…024abacked No | 4c | 3,500$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…9e9fbacked No | 1c | 3,428$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 3c | 3,410$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.59 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…3248backed No | 2c | 3,307$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ce…605cbacked No | 0c | 3,292$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 6c | 3,289$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.03 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567d…68bfbacked No | 3c | 3,185$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9117…7065backed No | 0c | 3,125$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 3,100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356a…bfeabacked No | 1c | 3,096$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 8c | 3,000$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 10c | 2,904$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.68 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb1…ecf4backed No | 1c | 2,681$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…cadbbacked No | 0c | 2,642$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27e4…ff39backed No | 2c | 2,633$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffeb…2dcbbacked No | 2c | 2,291$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…7269backed No | 2c | 2,034$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…a6e0backed No | 1c | 1,800$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a6…6e3fbacked No | 3c | 1,730$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked No | 1c | 1,700$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 94 | 10.6%10 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee9…08f2backed No | 1c | 1,525$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…cb70backed No | 2c | 1,305$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +117.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c1…e8b3backed Yes | 80c | 1,256$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.61 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…8465backed No | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 5c | 1,242$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…5926backed No | 1c | 1,166$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…4570backed Yes | 76c | 1,154$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.77 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e5…8146backed No | 1c | 1,125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 79c | 1,117$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.28 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 15c | 1,100$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,094$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4610…816cbacked No | 1c | 1,072$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed No | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 14cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Yes | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc05…f600backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 3c | 999.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x963b…64ddbacked No | 10c | 971.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbea8…53dabacked No | 2c | 949.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad80…ea53backed No | 1c | 899.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 871.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ad…aed6backed No | 2c | 867.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…f298backed No | 2c | 832.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5939…9414backed No | 2c | 831.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -79%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2e…0626backed No | 6c | 818.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 1c | 803.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 15c | 729.22$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.43 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd401…306cbacked No | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 10c | 697.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.24 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x028b…06bcbacked No | 1c | 688.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x612a…177dbacked No | 3c | 667.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…9b2ebacked No | 1c | 666.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5670…2b9cbacked Yes | 72c | 660.19$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.55 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 3c | 637.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7a…e6fabacked No | 3c | 630.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026?this page
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.