TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa9ae…8598

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
110
Categories scored
26
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: World Politics, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 60 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT2441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will another AI-generated song reach number 1 on any Billboard chart by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$309.27
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$314.5
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$159.3
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$226.95
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.1
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.20 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$749Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$748.8
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$723Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$722.69
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$172Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$109.98
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$532Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$532
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$197.76
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$508Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$383.13
Will Jeff Bezos be 3rd richest person on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$410Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$409.6
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$67.68
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+203%+$35.51
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.50 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$196.8
Will "Ultra-wide" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$221Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+48.7%+$107.35
Will "Gemini" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$58.96
Will "Supreme Court" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$650Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+51.5%+$334.9
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$775Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+28.2%+$218.68
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$42.63
Will "Elon" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$254Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+66.4%+$168.78
Will "Greenland" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$261.12
Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$309.54
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$133.2
All 24 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2352.2%12 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+63.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$28.62
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.25
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$333Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$332.8
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$169.47
Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+70.4%+$267.62
Will Iran strike Oman again in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.99
US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$407Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$114.84
Will the number of Israel Rocket Alerts since Operation Lion's Roar be at least 20,000 by March 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$212.52
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+525%+$215.04
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$361Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$162.13
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+58.7%+$93.61
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$423Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+273.6%+$1,157.14
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$108.99
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+376.2%+$526.14
Iran Strike on Israel by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$26.97
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$125.28
Nothing Ever Happens: Khameneibacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+566.7%+$355.3
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$337Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$337.08
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 20% in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$47.58
Will Trump say "NATO" during meeting with Netanyahu?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+58.7%+$183.52
Will Trump say "General" or "Bondi" during meeting with Netanyahu?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$17.69
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$119.28
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+117.4%+$144.72
All 23 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.04
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.12
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$234.36
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$219Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+407.6%+$894.54
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$706Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$332.16
Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.21
Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$332Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$163.35
Will February 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.91
Will February 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$466Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$323.9
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$208
Will Seattle have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$186.5
Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+156.4%+$75.64
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$315.02
All 13 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT5100%5 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+150.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$155.52
Spread: Ipswich Town FC (-1.5)backed Ipswich Town FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$78
Will Portsmouth FC win on 2025-12-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$229Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+270.4%+$619.77
All 3 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-55.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+312.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-02-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+100%+$49
Will Dundee United FC vs. Aberdeen FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+525%+$250.32
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Southern Illinois Salukis vs. Evansville Acesbacked Southern Illinois Salukis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$580Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$386.8
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Ole Miss Rebelsbacked Ole Miss Rebels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$210.67
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$657Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$657.36
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$382Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$382.32
All 2 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+809.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$817.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+733.3%+$675.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$129.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-02-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+455.6%+$345.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+150%+$265.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahcebacked Olympiacos B.C. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+95.7%+$10.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Christian Menefee win the Texas House special election runoff by 15% or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+31.6%+$94.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will USD.AI launch a token by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.34
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Ninja" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$328Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$328
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$40.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$601Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$601.12
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.