NFL · resolved market
Will La Santa be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa18b4cc09ec43893e4f76f498ade40173780053601da850960d26eda4101d2a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed Yes | 37c | 1,372$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed No | 63c | 1,235$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.95 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacb1…6de8backed No | 69c | 851$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked Yes | 31c | 851$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes | 41c | 606$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 29c | 537.22$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.37 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed No | 59c | 466$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 64c | 414$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.43 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed No | 71c | 348$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.92 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.41per pick | 45cpaid | +210.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…dd5fbacked Yes | 29c | 348$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5892…8a85backed Yes | 15c | 334.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf23e…aec3backed No | 75c | 313$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…44a9backed Yes | 25c | 313$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 20c | 283.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f7…e73bbacked No | 76c | 255.26$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 39c | 240$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…00a7backed Yes | 18c | 224.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8727…83d7backed No | 59c | 140$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 113$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x000f…eb8ebacked Yes | 48c | 103$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc975…2c68backed No | 70c | 102.23$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b7…d913backed Yes | 25c | 99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6142…367bbacked Yes | 33c | 99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef84…91dfbacked Yes | 21c | 95.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 31c | 93.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2b…f025backed No | 75c | 92$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 63c | 88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 28c | 82.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -51%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 46c | 82.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93b9…855dbacked No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…ae72backed Yes | 26c | 75.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc3…d183backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 73c | 63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 36c | 62.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes | 18c | 62.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 73c | 61.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 54.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…3adcbacked No | 63c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed No | 54c | 46.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de8…b0e2backed Yes | 45c | 44.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x690a…2ea7backed Yes | 49c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -4.7wins | -0.47per pick | 57cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2929…105fbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…22d9backed No | 76c | 26.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…d189backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will La Santa be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?this page
- Will BAILE INOLVIDABLE be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?Yes won
- Will Callaita be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will DtMF be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?Yes won
- Will DÁKITI be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will Efecto be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will I Like It be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will LA CANCIÓN be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will LA MUDANZA be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will La Jumpa be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will MIA be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will Me Porto Bonito be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will NUEVAYOL be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?Yes won
- Will Neverita be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will No Me Conoce - Remix be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will Ojitos Lindos be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will PERRO NEGRO be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will Safaera be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?Yes won
- Will Te Boté - Remix be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will Tití Me Preguntó be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?Yes won
- Will Yonaguni be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will un x100to be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.