TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will un x100to be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,250
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,361

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,250 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xba3d…cdfabacked Yes20c797$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14d4…cc6fbacked No80c797$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.4771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c07…956bbacked Yes19c742$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.9830%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes19c687.94$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.1211837.3%44 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2de8…293cbacked Yes24c664$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3859…7359backed No76c591$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes16c543.28$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.867439.2%29 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-39%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x425a…78cbbacked Yes24c502$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No73c449.99$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1238958.4%52 W · 37 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90bf…3348backed No77c409$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.721643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57ab…434bbacked No76c357$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed No75c293$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.22860.7%17 W · 11 L+4.3wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+22.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6587…4f63backed No76c218$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.32650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4de8…b0e2backed Yes9c211.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No68c150$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.7428151.6%145 W · 136 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5107…4106backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes29c92$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.15679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x690a…2ea7backed Yes36c80$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.81010%1 W · 9 L-4.7wins-0.47per pick57cpaid-83.6%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No75c71.6$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9518427.7%51 W · 133 L-18.4wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-42.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes15c68$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.123638.9%14 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf0e…79c8backed Yes21c67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.311421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-60.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No76c60.11$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.584751.1%24 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed Yes25c55.13$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.991225%3 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-51%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbeb2…376dbacked No79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x203d…e00fbacked No79c44.29$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.29977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick61cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No68c40.37$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0452828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1093…a708backed No79c32.2$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.810731.8%34 W · 73 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-44%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed No59c21.94$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No76c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.363650%18 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.