NFL · resolved market
Will Neverita be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbab1b16a2d71d3971513f25c96d31bd5eccd2920baba6fe8c22c5551f2531842
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked Yes | 34c | 1,441$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…3348backed No | 76c | 1,191$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.7 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 27c | 980.66$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.38 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…91fdbacked No | 66c | 675$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…f7eabacked No | 66c | 556$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…7c01backed Yes | 34c | 486$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ed…ec87backed No | 66c | 486$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 34c | 484$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe27…9623backed Yes | 47c | 464$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…fcbebacked No | 66c | 464$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…4bffbacked No | 53c | 464$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked Yes | 50c | 448$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked No | 66c | 421$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…001dbacked Yes | 34c | 397$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed Yes | 50c | 378$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…6e13backed No | 50c | 378$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee6…7289backed No | 50c | 376$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…4146backed Yes | 34c | 340$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed No | 66c | 340$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…178dbacked No | 66c | 197.13$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24b0…2bc6backed No | 55c | 183.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 30c | 175.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 47c | 154$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.47 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…cae1backed No | 66c | 134$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +253.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 76c | 133.28$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 37c | 128.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 115.85$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 107.71$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 46c | 105.05$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.08 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 52c | 101.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 51c | 100.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 53c | 95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…24efbacked No | 50c | 72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ee…9238backed No | 66c | 72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 36c | 66.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 64c | 61.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3f…97d8backed No | 78c | 61.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 49c | 52.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -51%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 31c | 51.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 55c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x690a…2ea7backed Yes | 41c | 43.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -4.7wins | -0.47per pick | 57cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 51c | 39.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…0101backed Yes | 38c | 31.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 50c | 31.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 78c | 23.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x203d…e00fbacked No | 67c | 22.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Neverita be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?this page
- Will BAILE INOLVIDABLE be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?Yes won
- Will Callaita be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will DtMF be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?Yes won
- Will DÁKITI be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will Efecto be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will I Like It be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will LA CANCIÓN be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will LA MUDANZA be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will La Jumpa be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will La Santa be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will MIA be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will Me Porto Bonito be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will NUEVAYOL be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?Yes won
- Will No Me Conoce - Remix be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will Ojitos Lindos be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will PERRO NEGRO be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will Safaera be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?Yes won
- Will Te Boté - Remix be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will Tití Me Preguntó be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?Yes won
- Will Yonaguni be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will un x100to be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.