TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will PERRO NEGRO be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,864
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,236

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,864 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x90bf…3348backed No78c1,001$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.541643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x874a…d584backed Yes33c774$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70e7…4a70backed No67c645$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.85475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick41cpaid+166.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8132…a491backed No70c623$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.9450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+39.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95e8…6f21backed Yes30c623$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes27c415$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.2764747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f52…a35abacked No68c390$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.8742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-26.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d7c…a11bbacked Yes32c390$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x50e8…ac57backed Yes32c305$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcf8…0657backed No68c305$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.6580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+41%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No50c286.27$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.428151.6%145 W · 136 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x84d6…bca9backed No69c271$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.01650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd80d…b42bbacked Yes31c271$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes30c259$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.655824.1%14 W · 44 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde45…d900backed Yes39c258.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed No57c221$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.222860.7%17 W · 11 L+4.3wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+22.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No65c219.6$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.816230.6%19 W · 43 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No76c217$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.348958.4%52 W · 37 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf29…77d1backed No80c214.41$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-58.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes20c200$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.548847.5%232 W · 256 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf060…b07abacked No59c178.14$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.341735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes40c159$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.62931%9 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c146.61$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3331439.8%125 W · 189 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d58…34e0backed No67c129$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb835…2e51backed No69c107.31$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.31966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+49.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2375…dd3abacked No77c102.15$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.032050%10 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes22c87.94$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.111837.3%44 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes26c87.42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.112222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4de8…b0e2backed Yes24c83.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb766…1d83backed Yes28c78.2$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.91172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No64c75$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273735.1%13 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22b5…bdcabacked Yes73c69.35$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes15c67.11$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.375933.9%20 W · 39 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes23c58.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.585679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed No60c54.72$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.731553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked No40c49.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.632227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-46.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No72c45.27$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.745479.6%43 W · 11 L+8.1wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+26%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x98dd…801ebacked Yes37c40.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No74c40.19$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.347439.2%29 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-39%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62bb…df7dbacked No69c32.36$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2d4…2891backed No66c27.22$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea76…4397backed No67c26.71$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No77c26.1$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610731.8%34 W · 73 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-44%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No60c25.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0918427.7%51 W · 133 L-18.4wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-42.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf1be…fa77backed No79c25.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb941…1619backed No52c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+22.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed Yes45c23.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.641225%3 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-51%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xff6a…0651backed No64c22.04$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.04666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x690a…2ea7backed Yes60c21.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.221010%1 W · 9 L-4.7wins-0.47per pick57cpaid-83.6%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.41662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.