TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will LA MUDANZA be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,258
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,059

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,258 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a7e…ecbfbacked No67c5,595$3,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,856.31666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9e…6838backed Yes62c3,158$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,960450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc8e…bf8ebacked No55c2,978$1,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,336.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes36c2,963$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.7528151.6%145 W · 136 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8ba2…632cbacked Yes72c2,139$1,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,537.71250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0e0…1acebacked No39c2,100$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,274.861520%3 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc775…6b22backed Yes9c1,776$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.84425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+161.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes56c1,285$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.2111837.3%44 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfce1…9f9ebacked Yes60c1,239$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b7a…e8f5backed Yes65c1,016$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.18250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2009…903ebacked Yes67c1,000$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick59cpaid-57.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+52.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes14c982.78$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.722516%4 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+52.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed No34c920.71$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.752860.7%17 W · 11 L+4.3wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+22.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed Yes11c820.32$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.241323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+54.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x036f…31a9backed Yes56c794$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.64944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3e…3f97backed Yes60c769.13$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes53c761$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.33616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-78.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x87fd…66bcbacked No44c706$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.362100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick43cpaid+135.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf046…2614backed No46c680.18$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.684100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+105.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6f5…d7aabacked No47c662$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.86450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ea…a152backed No39c604$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93c8…7861backed No40c592$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x605b…df31backed Yes59c556.21$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.19128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick29cpaid-84.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x696a…e23abacked Yes30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503655.6%20 W · 16 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+40.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes46c496.16$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.775933.9%20 W · 39 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x88fd…7a7bbacked No51c490.31$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c07…956bbacked Yes53c485$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.0530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c86…b75ebacked No47c485$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.052100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick44cpaid+131.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d45…652abacked Yes15c458.29$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.951717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-39.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e77…3273backed No40c457$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10df…04a9backed Yes58c431.03$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+63.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc536…589ebacked Yes61c414$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e3d…bf10backed No52c400$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-55%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b1d…fe6dbacked Yes72c356.82$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25720%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No39c351.4$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.057439.2%29 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-39%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde45…d900backed No59c319.67$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.1757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed No54c304.42$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.229853.1%52 W · 46 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+10.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4eb2…8083backed Yes60c249.94$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14940%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes61c229.11$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.57966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Yes40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-42.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbeee…171dbacked Yes52c182.16$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x87e8…5e6ebacked Yes51c180$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.61330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-51.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbd2…9b1abacked Yes54c180$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-55%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd165…f2b8backed No57c175.45$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.45450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf6ce…4aa3backed No49c161.79$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.79742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes56c146$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.293735.1%13 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1aa1…d4c8backed Yes59c145$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.751080%8 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+84.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2375…dd3abacked Yes53c141.88$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752050%10 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked No38c116.18$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.331040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed No51c111.22$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.392070%14 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+31.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x738b…765cbacked Yes48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes49c100.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.614751.1%24 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x643a…a0eebacked Yes57c100.58$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No50c100.58$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.0652828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e79…56dcbacked Yes56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565424.1%13 W · 41 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-48.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1197…40bfbacked Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512748.1%13 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No38c99.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.8118427.7%51 W · 133 L-18.4wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-42.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xef37…f2bcbacked No47c99$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+35%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No38c95.9$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.572931%9 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa30e…7153backed Yes53c93.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf0e…79c8backed Yes59c91.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.681421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-60.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes57c91.86$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.622025%5 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd513…e249backed Yes54c91.02$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4940%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb976…c213backed No44c88$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe739…0484backed Yes57c87.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502425%6 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-48.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes39c85.61$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.49825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-49%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked Yes62c80.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503066.7%20 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…038cbacked Yes65c76.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.08616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick51cpaid-75.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No39c76.26$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.245679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No52c74$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.323638.9%14 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes47c72.31$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.22227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-46.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…5b73backed No57c63.95$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.542100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes57c61.44$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8810731.8%34 W · 73 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-44%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62c9…71a6backed No50c59.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.39366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+26.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No46c58.81$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0536826.9%99 W · 269 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No45c55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1531439.8%125 W · 189 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed Yes54c52.74$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.22966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7897…4239backed Yes60c50.97$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.58742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5102…cbddbacked Yes58c49.14$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-74.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b3e…bd4dbacked Yes71c44.39$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5240%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed No38c42.57$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.541225%3 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-51%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa0a…caf5backed Yes56c42.51$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2430%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb920…7922backed No40c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.891926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f1c…4bf2backed Yes52c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ec…7146backed Yes53c37.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Yes67c37.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-39%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed No38c36$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.26933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-35.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9af3…4314backed Yes56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6956…d189backed No47c35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.551323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-60.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb970…4887backed Yes59c33.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed No31c33.49$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.131553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7514…37bfbacked Yes55c30.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6142…367bbacked No43c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x323b…6ed9backed Yes50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc532…e86fbacked Yes67c29.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c60…d2a8backed Yes54c27.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-57.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No43c26$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.782222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc874…6c5ebacked Yes58c22.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.