NFL · resolved market
Will Safaera be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x677368d45984df7a058583daa8ab01b6bb9346532fa842514cf6350d7d0a1417
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a7e…ecbfbacked No | 54c | 8,206$4,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,471 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 49c | 7,514$3,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,839.23 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed Yes | 63c | 1,242$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 58c | 1,159$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.46 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…1acebacked No | 49c | 1,030$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.47 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed Yes | 45c | 981$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 49c | 874.89$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.91 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked No | 37c | 846$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…3348backed No | 79c | 823.33$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.09 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 55c | 714$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.7 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed Yes | 58c | 628$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…1dcfbacked No | 42c | 518$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked Yes | 31c | 361$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 22cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb83e…10fcbacked No | 69c | 361$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 54c | 293$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 46c | 293$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.78 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed Yes | 44c | 272$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7c…a11bbacked No | 56c | 272$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…6cb4backed No | 55c | 267$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…99f7backed No | 37c | 257$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0850…cb8cbacked Yes | 60c | 241.14$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62c9…71a6backed No | 52c | 200.51$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7897…4239backed No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 13c | 158.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 59c | 141.01$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.82 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e70…4368backed No | 50c | 123.48$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x326e…c7b9backed No | 42c | 110$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…6487backed No | 37c | 106$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 32c | 89.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 39c | 89.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…3d3ebacked No | 58c | 85.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…c16abacked Yes | 63c | 85.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…79c8backed Yes | 60c | 83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…5207backed Yes | 61c | 82.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5107…4106backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…dd3abacked No | 52c | 67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 28c | 67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 39c | 59.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 40c | 57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 56.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Yes | 47c | 56.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…765cbacked No | 62c | 54.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1309…4a35backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 30c | 49.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3f…97d8backed No | 60c | 46.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe739…0484backed No | 46c | 43.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 41c | 42.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…adcabacked Yes | 45c | 35.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x949d…374cbacked Yes | 40c | 34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff01…3bfebacked Yes | 72c | 31.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63d…564cbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 45c | 29.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 65 | 0%0 W · 65 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf563…a5b4backed Yes | 61c | 24.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e8…178bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…7922backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…8a23backed No | 56c | 19.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbe…8af9backed Yes | 62c | 17.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 78c | 13.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Safaera be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?this page
- Will BAILE INOLVIDABLE be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?Yes won
- Will Callaita be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will DtMF be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?Yes won
- Will DÁKITI be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will Efecto be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will I Like It be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will LA CANCIÓN be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will LA MUDANZA be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will La Jumpa be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will La Santa be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will MIA be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will Me Porto Bonito be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will NUEVAYOL be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?Yes won
- Will Neverita be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will No Me Conoce - Remix be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will Ojitos Lindos be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will PERRO NEGRO be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will Te Boté - Remix be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will Tití Me Preguntó be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?Yes won
- Will Yonaguni be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will un x100to be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.