NFL · resolved market
Will DtMF be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb861a8673d59e441a80dfa1d29d9098b0b0b55ff790e725aa37ef6cb50968c03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ecc…6b37backed No | 2c | 4,310$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 6c | 2,927$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.33 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 2c | 1,132$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 2c | 938.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 2c | 922.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 65 | 0%0 W · 65 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c15…758dbacked No | 4c | 830$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…79c8backed No | 7c | 698.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…87b5backed No | 4c | 541.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 507$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fb…1917backed No | 11c | 461.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 7c | 413$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 5c | 239.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 8c | 217$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe739…0484backed No | 13c | 173.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 11c | 160.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 8c | 134.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed No | 10c | 111.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…dd3abacked Yes | 80c | 91.15$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DtMF be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?this page
- Will BAILE INOLVIDABLE be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?Yes won
- Will Callaita be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will DÁKITI be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will Efecto be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will I Like It be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will LA CANCIÓN be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will LA MUDANZA be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will La Jumpa be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will La Santa be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will MIA be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will Me Porto Bonito be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will NUEVAYOL be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?Yes won
- Will Neverita be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will No Me Conoce - Remix be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will Ojitos Lindos be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will PERRO NEGRO be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will Safaera be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?Yes won
- Will Te Boté - Remix be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will Tití Me Preguntó be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?Yes won
- Will Yonaguni be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will un x100to be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.