NFL · resolved market
Will Efecto be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5915ef54c777973d4603cf001eafcb8c921dc0624a3823d0f623553489a06c74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90bf…3348backed No | 69c | 1,602$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.61 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e77…3273backed Yes | 30c | 1,085$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed Yes | 37c | 1,028$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…758bbacked No | 70c | 843$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 52c | 742$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.16 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…ae40backed Yes | 48c | 742$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…87bfbacked Yes | 37c | 678$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…e1babacked No | 63c | 632$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed Yes | 37c | 611$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked No | 52c | 496$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed Yes | 48c | 496$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 33c | 472.75$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.16 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f3…a7fabacked No | 53c | 470$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed Yes | 37c | 470$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed Yes | 47c | 470$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…db77backed No | 63c | 444$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed No | 63c | 434$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed No | 63c | 409$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +41%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…4590backed No | 63c | 403$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71fb…9b65backed No | 53c | 392$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…1307backed Yes | 47c | 392$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 37c | 380$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…1690backed No | 53c | 367$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…83dcbacked No | 63c | 367$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes | 47c | 367$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…e864backed No | 52c | 316$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed Yes | 48c | 316$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked No | 70c | 308$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 37c | 291$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed No | 43c | 287$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.59 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…c913backed No | 63c | 244$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 50c | 225$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.96 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked No | 63c | 217$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…bcf0backed No | 63c | 208$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 25c | 191$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 26c | 134$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f9…0b21backed Yes | 31c | 78.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 59c | 76.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 36c | 63.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0a…caf5backed Yes | 49c | 61.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…84e3backed No | 63c | 61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de8…b0e2backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 22c | 54.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 54.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 40c | 51.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 30c | 43.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 44c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x668c…fc62backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…a2debacked No | 63c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce8…df43backed No | 63c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…c16abacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 34c | 33.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 62c | 29.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x203d…e00fbacked No | 61c | 28.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed No | 62c | 26.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff6a…0651backed No | 58c | 25.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…5429backed Yes | 40c | 25.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1e…0a48backed Yes | 46c | 22.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x690a…2ea7backed Yes | 72c | 20.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -4.7wins | -0.47per pick | 57cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 16.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 71c | 15.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Efecto be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?this page
- Will BAILE INOLVIDABLE be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?Yes won
- Will Callaita be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will DtMF be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?Yes won
- Will DÁKITI be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will I Like It be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will LA CANCIÓN be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will LA MUDANZA be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will La Jumpa be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will La Santa be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will MIA be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will Me Porto Bonito be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will NUEVAYOL be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?Yes won
- Will Neverita be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will No Me Conoce - Remix be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will Ojitos Lindos be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will PERRO NEGRO be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will Safaera be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?Yes won
- Will Te Boté - Remix be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will Tití Me Preguntó be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?Yes won
- Will Yonaguni be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
- Will un x100to be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.