TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe07c…1307

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
62
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: AI, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category AI at 54 out of 100; worst Movies at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT1258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+20.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.58
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.00 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$236.44
Will SpaceX have exactly 12 launches in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+40.4%+$54.14
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$81.13
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$192.72
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$38.94
Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$187.2
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$30.96
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$646Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+174%+$1,123.97
Will "Data Center" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$28.41
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$61.18
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$276Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+25%+$69
All 12 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-46.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.44
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.8
Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$388Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+26.1%+$101.19
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$38.22
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$369Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$368.52
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$79.8
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+96.1%+$139.16
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$279.22
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 20% in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$909Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+35.1%+$319.54
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$173.43
Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$60.76
All 11 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.08
Will February 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$148
Will February 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$217Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$150.47
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$427Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$426.66
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$243.2
Will Seattle have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$405Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+38.9%+$157.64
Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$254.87
Will there be at least 1,150 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$285Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+61.3%+$174.42
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$342Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+100%+$341.5
All 9 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Movies — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blackburn Beavers vs. Eastern Illinois Panthersbacked Eastern Illinois Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+51.7%+$77.41
Southern Illinois Salukis vs. Evansville Aces: O/U 142.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$200.94
All 2 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dundee FC vs. Motherwell FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$154.08
Will NEC win on 2026-01-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$648Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$648.48
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$48.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-01-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$252Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$295.38
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2025-12-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$251Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+49.3%+$123.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?backed SpaceX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$266Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$125.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olivia Rodrigo announce a new album by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$617Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$174.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-01-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$129.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$292.03
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.