Weather · resolved market
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5adfda8ba588d2a2b3f08b1a6b70fb35c0eead84680da19728e03c293b49506f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,538 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e24…8266backed Yes | 2c | 4,036$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,987$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 1c | 1,673$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…0451backed Yes | 52c | 1,392$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed Yes | 38c | 1,286$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…3213backed No | 62c | 1,096$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.48 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x416c…8dcebacked Yes | 74c | 1,086$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked Yes | 47c | 1,085$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.95 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed Yes | 75c | 1,006$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb25f…a460backed Yes | 3c | 970.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…973dbacked Yes | 51c | 958$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked No | 23c | 918$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.86 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…7914backed Yes | 77c | 890$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +136.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…dae1backed No | 49c | 874$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked No | 36c | 806$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.84 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…6d3cbacked No | 48c | 802$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.04 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked Yes | 66c | 776$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.16 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked Yes | 69c | 727$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.63 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874a…d584backed Yes | 52c | 722$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 70c | 693$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.21 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 18c | 672.89$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.07 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 71c | 650$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 70c | 647$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.9 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…4d9abacked Yes | 64c | 642$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…f562backed Yes | 51c | 639$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…7d60backed No | 44c | 638$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.11 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…1f63backed No | 31c | 583$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed No | 32c | 582$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffa1…15bdbacked Yes | 34c | 569$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaffd…b072backed Yes | 77c | 554$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…bd84backed No | 53c | 549$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…db2abacked No | 25c | 543$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed No | 34c | 523$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.18 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…d8d0backed Yes | 59c | 522.11$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…7f19backed No | 21c | 522$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 58c | 519$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.89 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 66c | 514$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.24 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked Yes | 66c | 512$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.92 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…7f61backed No | 29c | 488$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed Yes | 67c | 485$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.95 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43f6…bb1ebacked No | 33c | 485$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +135.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 70c | 474.33$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.35 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked Yes | 75c | 472$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de5…d01cbacked No | 34c | 470$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed No | 33c | 455$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.85 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0016…1b7abacked No | 36c | 452$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 46c | 445.16$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.86 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd9…6c92backed Yes | 67c | 442$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…6e13backed Yes | 63c | 440$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…6b65backed No | 37c | 440$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a11…09b6backed Yes | 43c | 434.62$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +160.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked No | 41c | 429$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.58 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed Yes | 68c | 412$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.16 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58fe…a8c5backed No | 34c | 409$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed No | 21c | 409$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95e8…6f21backed No | 46c | 405$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…49f3backed No | 66c | 404$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked No | 30c | 399$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 66c | 396$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.36 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…1307backed No | 36c | 380$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed No | 26c | 376$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.24 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 51c | 367$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.17 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed No | 49c | 367$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.17 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 64c | 353$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.92 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…8cc1backed No | 34c | 341$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 64c | 328$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.92 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed No | 26c | 318$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.32 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…0176backed No | 48c | 317$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9f9ebacked Yes | 67c | 299$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd1…2bb3backed No | 48c | 273$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked No | 49c | 270$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.7 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +135.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…0da3backed No | 25c | 269$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x612d…3fd1backed No | 25c | 267$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +191.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…3adcbacked Yes | 53c | 265$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.45 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…c454backed No | 47c | 265$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.45 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 50c | 218.14$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.11 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…6beabacked No | 25c | 203$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 27cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…fc01backed No | 26c | 197$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…bdf1backed No | 25c | 196$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked No | 26c | 192$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.08 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f51…c63cbacked No | 36c | 190$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed No | 48c | 189$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.28 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 35c | 187.46$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc493…b8f3backed Yes | 66c | 180$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed No | 30c | 179$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.3 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1aa…8a53backed Yes | 68c | 166.57$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed No | 66c | 165$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed No | 29c | 162$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.02 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b1…9643backed Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb35a…c452backed Yes | 66c | 147.7$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked No | 31c | 144$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.36 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed Yes | 79c | 143$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.97 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…e97bbacked No | 47c | 136$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed No | 47c | 134.34$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.14 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3a…f00bbacked No | 47c | 134$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…5fa9backed No | 47c | 133$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…483ebacked No | 47c | 129$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3c…cacdbacked No | 47c | 128$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 38c | 127.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.79 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…cae1backed Yes | 64c | 125$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?this page
- Will 120 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?No won
- Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?Yes won
- Will 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?No won
- Will 90 to 119 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.