Weather · resolved market
Will 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc5b6b44428872f42cb6bf967b73082d989dfabab12e8282427dd5ba19d50727
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,412 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7800…850bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,704$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 17c | 3,273$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.89 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…d8d0backed Yes | 7c | 1,692$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0016…1b7abacked Yes | 21c | 1,335$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.02 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe511…12b0backed Yes | 1c | 1,235$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes | 13c | 1,038$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.05 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed No | 79c | 734$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.41 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 8c | 672.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 6c | 546.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 6c | 395.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked No | 79c | 343$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Yes | 16c | 282.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked No | 79c | 258$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.92 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 14c | 254.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 41c | 240$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.88 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb83e…10fcbacked Yes | 12c | 217$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 213.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed Yes | 21c | 199.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 173.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed No | 79c | 146.67$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed Yes | 11c | 146.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…6d3cbacked Yes | 21c | 126$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…0c57backed No | 79c | 126$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 99.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 98.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 12c | 87.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…33a1backed No | 71c | 79.45$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2a…22b9backed Yes | 23c | 65.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…8266backed No | 76c | 60.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ef…ebcabacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x516c…8bb5backed No | 79c | 13.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?this page
- Will 120 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?No won
- Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?Yes won
- Will 90 to 119 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?No won
- Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.