Weather · resolved market
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x250dd8ac18c0053af3b6944ba93dd04cd1d2a04e2c1790825503e134c40c75dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $144,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,768 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked No | 2c | 6,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…d8d0backed Yes | 63c | 5,029$3,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,853.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64d…00aebacked Yes | 79c | 2,603$2,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 1,871$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…c968backed No | 1c | 1,858$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…904bbacked Yes | 35c | 1,323$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.95 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…4b87backed Yes | 29c | 1,316$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.69 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +168.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed Yes | 32c | 1,259$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…6cb4backed Yes | 32c | 1,231$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.08 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed Yes | 34c | 1,211$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.26 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 27c | 1,177$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,158$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.02 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 21c | 1,123$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.3 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 17c | 1,123$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.96 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed No | 76c | 1,107$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.06 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed No | 12c | 1,060$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…52f9backed No | 12c | 1,041$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.92 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked No | 41c | 1,024$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…40d7backed Yes | 32c | 1,009$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 974.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd9…6c92backed Yes | 23c | 970$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked Yes | 32c | 935$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…99aabacked No | 34c | 843$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab9…2ff1backed No | 68c | 833$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 66c | 810$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.4 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 71c | 806.14$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.14 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…3929backed No | 68c | 805$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2b…f025backed Yes | 22c | 794$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e0…a63bbacked No | 68c | 794$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…ed0cbacked Yes | 42c | 785$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…e0ecbacked Yes | 71c | 779$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbe…04b4backed Yes | 31c | 771$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed No | 14c | 741$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf907…e7dbbacked No | 65c | 736$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…cae1backed Yes | 22c | 726$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 13c | 705$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.35 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…fca5backed No | 33c | 698.13$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2103…e296backed Yes | 66c | 697$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.98 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 69c | 672.89$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.33 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca3…9546backed No | 68c | 665$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed Yes | 22c | 627$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.06 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +101%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked No | 77c | 617.19$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.24 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…81c0backed No | 66c | 617$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 616.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4744…e229backed No | 72c | 613$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked No | 78c | 599$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.22 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 23c | 583$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.91 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fd…66bcbacked No | 61c | 571$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.44 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 24c | 569.2$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.49 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed Yes | 73c | 567$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.09 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec0…76f4backed No | 14c | 564$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…a634backed No | 58c | 562$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked No | 69c | 556$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.64 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58fe…a8c5backed No | 68c | 551$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed No | 26c | 538.29$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…2cdbbacked No | 29c | 532$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad04…dce5backed No | 68c | 509$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa756…b167backed No | 65c | 497$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked No | 49c | 491$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.34 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…83e5backed Yes | 18c | 491$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed Yes | 32c | 490$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…4942backed No | 68c | 490$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked No | 29c | 483$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.07 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 36c | 468.89$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 66c | 447.53$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.48 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed No | 77c | 436$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.72 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 26c | 424.85$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.36 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 46c | 424$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.96 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed Yes | 40c | 415$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…c7afbacked No | 60c | 415$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…9ae2backed Yes | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked No | 27c | 399$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.73 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed No | 78c | 394$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.32 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ec…4477backed Yes | 22c | 394$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.32 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked Yes | 32c | 394$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.92 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked No | 68c | 384$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed No | 27c | 373$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 61c | 371$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.63 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x282e…3eaabacked No | 69c | 360$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed Yes | 71c | 360$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed No | 14c | 346$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc70…50c0backed Yes | 37c | 337$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 5c | 329.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…0959backed Yes | 22c | 323$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb28…74f4backed No | 78c | 323$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.94 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a41…1160backed No | 73c | 321$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 62c | 311.65$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.65 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…1690backed No | 63c | 309$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fb…3fadbacked Yes | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425a…78cbbacked No | 58c | 296$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.68 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ba…e6cebacked Yes | 42c | 296$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…9c72backed No | 80c | 289$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 16c | 284$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.56 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed Yes | 22c | 280$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 6c | 277.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked No | 19c | 275.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8727…83d7backed Yes | 16c | 263$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.92 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…0ab2backed No | 68c | 258$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.44 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed No | 63c | 253$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…4146backed No | 14c | 253$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?this page
- Will 120 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?No won
- Will 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?No won
- Will 90 to 119 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?No won
- Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.